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The Main Determinants of Inflation in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Gary G. Moser

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the dominant factors influencing inflation in Nigeria. An error correction model of the inflation process is developed based on money market equilibrium conditions. The results of this analysis confirm the basic findings of earlier studies, namely, that monetary expansion, driven mainly by expansionary fiscal policies, explains to a large degree the inflationary process in Nigeria. Other important factors are the devaluation of the naira and agroclimatic conditions. It was found that concurrent fiscal and monetary policies had a major influence on the impact of the depreciation of the naira on inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Gary G. Moser, 1995. "The Main Determinants of Inflation in Nigeria," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 270-289, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:42:y:1995:i:2:p:270-289
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Suwareh Darbo & Amandine Nakumuryango, 2018. "Working Paper 305 - Inflation Dynamics In Post-Secession Sudan," Working Paper Series 2432, African Development Bank.
    2. Xavier Debrun & Paul Masson & Catherine Pattillo, 2005. "Monetary union in West Africa: who might gain, who might lose, and why?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 454-481, May.
    3. Emmanuel O. Akande & Elijah O. Akanni & Oyedamola F. Taiwo & Jeremiah D. Joshua & Abel Anthony, 2023. "Predicting inflation component drivers in Nigeria: a stacked ensemble approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-32, January.
    4. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Olanrewaju L. Shittu & OlaOluwa S. Yaya, 2011. "Long memory, strcutural breaks and mean shifts in the inflation rates in Nigeria," NCID Working Papers 04/2011, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    5. Peter Kehinde, Mogaji, 2010. "Fisher Effect and the Relationship between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: The Case of Nigeria," MPRA Paper 98760, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Onsel Sahin, Sule & Ulengin, Fusun & Ulengin, Burc, 2004. "Using neural networks and cognitive mapping in scenario analysis: The case of Turkey's inflation dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 124-145, October.
    7. Pius B. Simon, 1998. "Informal Responses to Crises of Urban Employment: An Investigation into the Structure and Relevance of Small-scale Informal Retailing in Kaduna, Nigeria," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(6), pages 547-557, August.
    8. Jin-Gil Jeong & Philip Fanara & Charlie Mahone, 2002. "Intra- and inter-continental transmission of inflation in Africa," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 731-741.
    9. Mr. Prakash Loungani & Mr. Phillip L Swagel, 2001. "Sources of Inflation in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2001/198, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Prof. Hyacinth Ichoku & Dr. Ihuoma Anthony & Dr. Tosin Olushola & Apinran Martins, 2023. "Analyzing the Evolving Relationships among Climate Change, Insecurity, and Food Price Inflation in Nigeria: NARDL Approach," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(11), pages 100-124, November.
    11. I, Sahadudheen, 2012. "A cointegration and error correction approach to the determinants of inflation in India," MPRA Paper 65561, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
    12. O. Evans, 2019. "Money, Inflation and Output in Nigeria and South Africa: Could Friedman and Schwartz Be Right?," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 392-406, July.
    13. Price, Simon & Nasim, Anjum, 1998. "Modelling inflation and the demand for money in Pakistan; cointegration and the causal structure," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 87-103, January.
    14. Hicham Ayad, 2020. "Money Supply, Inflation and Economic Growth: Co-Integration and Causality Analysis," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 65(2), pages 29-45, August.
    15. Teshale D. BEDADA & Wondaferahu M. DEMISSIE & Endeg T. WOLDE, 2020. "Determinants of Inflationary Experience in Ethiopia," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 4(1), pages 15-54.
    16. Koffie Ben Nassar, 2005. "Money Demand and Inflation in Madagascar," IMF Working Papers 2005/236, International Monetary Fund.
    17. David Mautin Oke & Koye Gerry Bokana & Adebowale Soluade, 2017. "Re-examining Exchange Rate Regimes and Inflation Nexus: An ARDL Analysis for Nigerian Case," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 13(6), pages 253-266, DECEMBER.
    18. Maureen Teresa Odongo & Roseline Nyakerario Misati & Anne Wangari Kamau & Kethi Ngoka Kisingu, 2022. "Climate Change and Inflation in Eastern and Southern Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-17, November.
    19. Sahin, Sule Onsel & Ulengin, Fusun & Ulengin, Burc, 2006. "A Bayesian causal map for inflation analysis: The case of Turkey," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 1268-1284, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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