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Stability of Velocity in the Major Industrial Countries: A Kalman Filter Approach

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  • Eduard J. Bomhoff

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

Forecasting models are estimated using annual data for the income velocity of money in seven major industrial countries. The predictions are conditional on the realized value of the long-term domestic government bond rate. These forecasts did not deteriorate over the period 1980-88, compared with the earlier postwar period. Velocity of M1 is found to be very interest elastic in almost all countries; velocity of M2, less so. The specifications (based on Kalman filters) point to a nonconstant trend in velocity, raising questions about the assumptions required for the cointegration techniques used in other research on money demand.

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  • Eduard J. Bomhoff, 1991. "Stability of Velocity in the Major Industrial Countries: A Kalman Filter Approach," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 626-642, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:38:y:1991:i:3:p:626-642
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    1. Hans G. Bloemen & Arie Kapteyn, 1993. "The Joint Estimation of a Non-Linear Labour Supply Function and a Wage Equation Using Simulated Response Probabilities," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 29, pages 175-205.
    2. Browne, F.X. & Fagan, G. & Henry, J., 1997. "Money Demand in EU Countries : A Survey," Papers 7, European Monetary Institute.
    3. Lecarpentier-Moyal, Sylvie & Renou-Maissant, Patricia, 2007. "Analyse dynamique de la convergence des comportements de demande de monnaie en Europe," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(3), pages 321-357, septembre.
    4. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    5. Sylvie Lecarpentier-Moyal & Patricia Renou-Maissant, 2007. "Analyse dynamique de la convergence des comportements de demande de monnaie en Europe," Post-Print halshs-00256488, HAL.
    6. Livio Stracca, 2003. "The Functional Form Of The Demand For Euro Area M1," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(2), pages 172-204, March.
    7. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Schaling, E., 1993. "Central bank independence in twelve industrial countries," Other publications TiSEM a8720614-d5b9-4252-9afe-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Brand, Claus & Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2002. "Estimating the trend of M3 income velocity underlying the reference value for monetary growth," Occasional Paper Series 3, European Central Bank.
    9. Bovenberg, A.L. & Goulder, L.H., 1993. "Promoting investment under international capital mobility : An intertemporal general equilibrium analysis," Other publications TiSEM 3d211075-2c03-478d-b657-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Dumitru, Ionut, 2002. "Money Demand in Romania," MPRA Paper 10629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Elyasiani, Elyas & Zadeh, Ali H. M., 1999. "Econometric tests of alternative scale variables in money demand in open economies: International evidence from selected OECD countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 193-211.
    12. Singh, Sunny Kumar, 2016. "Currency demand stability in the presence of seasonality and endogenous financial innovation: Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 71552, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

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