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US or Domestic Monetary Policy: Which Matters More for Financial Stability?

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen G. Cecchetti

    (Brandeis International Business School
    National Bureau of Economic Research
    Centre for Economic Policy Research)

  • Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Machiko Narita

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Ratna Sahay

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

We study the impact of sustained monetary policy easing on risk-taking behavior using firm-level data for nearly 1000 financial institutions in 21 countries over 15 years. We find that both banks and nonbanks increase leverage following domestic monetary policy easing. Surprisingly, following easing in the USA (but not in the euro area), leverage in non-US firms increases as well, by more than it does following a domestic easing. We go on to show that spillovers from US policy are stronger in countries that are more financially developed, less open to trade, and have smaller gross US dollar liabilities. These results lend support to concerns raised by emerging market policymakers that US monetary policy spillovers complicate domestic policymakers’ decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen G. Cecchetti & Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli & Machiko Narita & Ratna Sahay, 2020. "US or Domestic Monetary Policy: Which Matters More for Financial Stability?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 35-65, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:68:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1057_s41308-020-00108-2
    DOI: 10.1057/s41308-020-00108-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Alter, Adrian & Elekdag, Selim, 2020. "Emerging market corporate leverage and global financial conditions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Cao, Jin & Dinger, Valeriya & Gómez, Tomás & Gric, Zuzana & Hodula, Martin & Jara, Alejandro & Juelsrud, Ragnar & Liaudinskas, Karolis & Malovaná, Simona & Terajima, Yaz, 2023. "Monetary policy spillover to small open economies: Is the transmission different under low interest rates?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Nina Boyarchenko & Giovanni Favara & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Empirical Evidence and Challenges," Staff Reports 1003, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Takáts, Előd & Temesvary, Judit, 2021. "How does the interaction of macroprudential and monetary policies affect cross-border bank lending?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    5. Cardozo, Pamela & Morales-Acevedo, Paola & Murcia, Andrés & Rosado, Alejandra, 2022. "Does the geographical complexity of the Colombian financial conglomerates increase banks’ risk? The role of diversification, regulatory arbitrage, and funding costs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    6. Gelos, Gaston & Gornicka, Lucyna & Koepke, Robin & Sahay, Ratna & Sgherri, Silvia, 2022. "Capital flows at risk: Taming the ebbs and flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    7. Cecchetti, Stephen G. & Narita, Machiko & Rawat, Umang & Sahay, Ratna, 2023. "Addressing Spillovers from Prolonged U.S. Monetary Policy Easing," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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