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The Economic Costs of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from a Simulation Exercise for Ghana

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  • Sena Amewu

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

  • Seth Asante

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

  • Karl Pauw

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

  • James Thurlow

    (International Food Policy Research Institute)

Abstract

Globally, countries have resorted to social distancing, travel restrictions and economic lockdowns to reduce transmission of COVID-19. The socioeconomic costs of these blunt measures are expected to be high, especially in sub-Saharan Africa where many live hand-to-mouth and lack social safety nets. Social Accounting Matrix multiplier model results show that Ghana’s urban lockdown, although in force for only three weeks in April 2020, has likely caused GDP to fall by 27.9% during that period, while an additional 3.8 million Ghanaians temporarily became poor. Compared to the government’s revised GDP growth rate of 1.5% for 2020, the model predicts a contraction of 0.6 to 6.3% for 2020, depending on the speed of the recovery. The US$200 million budgeted for Ghana’s Coronavirus Alleviation Program will close only a small part of the estimated US$ 2.3 billion GDP gap between the fast recovery scenario and government’s revised GDP trajectory.

Suggested Citation

  • Sena Amewu & Seth Asante & Karl Pauw & James Thurlow, 2020. "The Economic Costs of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from a Simulation Exercise for Ghana," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(5), pages 1353-1378, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:eurjdr:v:32:y:2020:i:5:d:10.1057_s41287-020-00332-6
    DOI: 10.1057/s41287-020-00332-6
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    3. Zhiwen Li & Oswin Aganda Anaba & Zhiqiang Ma & Mingxing Li, 2021. "Ghanaian SMEs Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evaluating the Influence of Entrepreneurial Orientation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-27, January.
    4. Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Raju, Dhushyanth & Tanaka, Tomomi & Abanokova, Kseniya, 2024. "Poverty dynamics for Ghana during 2005/06–2016/17: an investigation using synthetic panels," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124105, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Kudaisi, Bosede Victoria & Olomola, P.A., 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic Lockdown on Food Intake in Nigeria," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 9(3), June.
    6. V. Seror & G. Maradan & E.-H. Ba & S. Cortaredona & C. Berenger & Olivier L’haridon & C. Sokhna & Jocelyn Raude, 2021. "COVID-19-related attitudes, risk perceptions, preventive behaviours and economic impact in sub-Saharan African countries: Implementing a longitudinal phone-based survey protocol in rural Senegalese ho," Post-Print hal-03335734, HAL.
    7. Nxumalo, Mpumelelo Author-Name: Raju, Dhushyanth, "undated". "Structural Transformation and Labor Market Performance in Ghana," Jobs Group Papers, Notes, and Guides 154568, The World Bank.
    8. Feuerbacher, Arndt & Flaig, Dorothee, 2021. "Global and local effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Africa: What role does tourism play?," Conference papers 333269, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
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    11. Hamid El Bilali & Lawali Dambo & Jacques Nanema & Sheirita Reine Fanta Tietiambou & Iro Dan Guimbo & Romaric Kiswendsida Nanema, 2023. "Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Agri-Food Systems in West Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-23, July.
    12. Rexford Abaidoo & Elvis Kwame Agyapong, 2023. "Global food price volatility and inflationary pressures among developing economies," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(10), pages 1-21, October.
    13. Christiana C. Nyarko & Michael Affam & Samuel K. Obeng, 2022. "Comparative Analysis of the Contribution of the Agricultural Sector to the Gross Domestic Product of Ghana: Before and Within COVID-19 Pandemic," International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation, International Journal of Research and Scientific Innovation (IJRSI), vol. 9(6), pages 07-11, June.
    14. Valeria Ferreira & Miguel Ángel Almazán-Gómez & Victor Nechifor & Emanuele Ferrari, 2022. "The role of the agricultural sector in Ghanaian development: a multiregional SAM-based analysis," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, December.
    15. Spencer Henson & Uma Kambhampati & Tewodaj Mogues & Wendy Olsen & Martin Prowse & Raul Ramos & John Rand & Rasjah Rasiah & Keetie Roelen & Rebecca Tiessen & O. Fiona Yap, 2020. "The Development Impacts of COVID-19 at Home and Abroad: Politics and Implications of Government Action," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(5), pages 1339-1352, December.
    16. Elizabeth Opiyo Onyango & Bernard Owusu & Jonathan S. Crush, 2023. "COVID-19 and Urban Food Security in Ghana during the Third Wave," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-24, February.

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