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Decoupling from China: an economic analysis of the impact on the U.S. economy of a permanent tariff on Chinese imports

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Listed:
  • Steven Byers

    (Coalition for a Prosperous America)

  • Jeff Ferry

    (Coalition for a Prosperous America)

Abstract

America’s pursuit of low-cost overseas production and China’s thirst for export markets have resulted in industrial decline in the U.S. and raised serious questions about national security. An economic decoupling from China is now actively discussed in Washington. We model the economic impact of a permanent 25% across-the-board tariff on imports from China to study its macroeconomic effects. We find significant gains in GDP and employment and a large reorientation of U.S. supply chains.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Byers & Jeff Ferry, 2019. "Decoupling from China: an economic analysis of the impact on the U.S. economy of a permanent tariff on Chinese imports," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 54(4), pages 248-256, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:54:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1057_s11369-019-00141-8
    DOI: 10.1057/s11369-019-00141-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Kehoe, Timothy J., 2002. "An Evaluation of the Performance of Applied General Equilibrium Models of the Impact of NAFTA," Conference papers 331066, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Congressional Budget Office, 2019. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029," Reports 54918, Congressional Budget Office.
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