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Validating Policy‐Induced Economic Change Using Sequential General Equilibrium SAMs

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  • M. Alejandro Cardenete
  • M. Carmen Lima
  • Ferran Sancho

Abstract

We present a novel sequential approach that explores the capacity of Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to track down policy‐induced economic changes and their ability to generate contrastable data. We use an empirical Social accounting matrix (SAM) of the region of Andalusia, in the south of Spain, to construct an initial CGE model. This model is then perturbed with a set of policy shocks related to EU Structural Funds invested into Andalusia. These shocks are accompanied by some parameter adjustments that pick up the main external changes not explained by the model. We generate a sequence of model‐produced virtual SAMs. We then compare the last virtual SAM in the sequence with a new available empirical SAM. This allows us to check relatedness, for the same year, between the model produced and the empirical SAMs. The results show a good fit to the empirical data, providing further support to the CGE modelling tool. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Alejandro Cardenete & M. Carmen Lima & Ferran Sancho, 2017. "Validating Policy‐Induced Economic Change Using Sequential General Equilibrium SAMs," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 291-304, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:36:y:2017:i:3:p:291-304
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    1. Mark Partridge & Dan Rickman, 2010. "Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modelling for Regional Economic Development Analysis," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(10), pages 1311-1328.
    2. Ezequiel Uriel Jiménez & Javier Ferri & María Luisa Moltó Carbonell, 2005. "Matriz De Contabilidad Social De 1995 Para España (Mcs-95)," Working Papers. Serie EC 2005-03, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    3. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521266550, September.
    4. Kehoe, Timothy J., 2002. "An Evaluation of the Performance of Applied General Equilibrium Models of the Impact of NAFTA," Conference papers 331066, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Kehoe,Timothy J. & Srinivasan,T. N. & Whalley,John (ed.), 2005. "Frontiers in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521825252, September.
    6. Melchor Fernández & Clemente Polo, 2000. "Una nueva matriz de contabilidad social para España: la SAM-90," Documentos de trabajo - Analise Economica 0011, IDEGA - Instituto Universitario de Estudios e Desenvolvemento de Galicia.
    7. Kehoe, Timothy J. & Whalley, John, 1985. "Uniqueness of equilibrium in large-scale numerical general equilibrium models," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 247-254, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cotterman, Turner, 2019. "Why Rapid and Deep Decarbonization isn’t Simple: Linking Bottom-up Socio-technical Decision-making Insights with Top-down Macroeconomic Analyses," Conference papers 333088, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Ferran Sancho, 2023. "The surplus-value rate and the structure of the tax system," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 969.23, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • O21 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Planning Models; Planning Policy
    • D57 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Input-Output Tables and Analysis

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