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Immigration and United States Economic Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Frederick Treyz

    (Regional Economic Models, Inc.)

  • Peter Evangelakis

    (Regional Economic Models, Inc.)

Abstract

Immigration policy is one of the most hotly contested political issues in the United States. In this paper, we evaluate the role of immigration in the U.S. economy. We pose the counterfactual question, “what would happen if net migration to the U.S. were to cease?” Using the REMI PI+ macroeconomic policy analysis model, we set to zero international immigration from 2018 to 2060, and estimate the national- and state-level economic and demographic implications of this change. Our estimates show that, in the absence of immigration, total U.S. employment would peak in 2019, and the U.S. GDP and labor force would decline by 20% through 2060. Per capita income and GDP effects, however, are relatively minor and sensitive to assumptions in labor and capital markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederick Treyz & Peter Evangelakis, 2018. "Immigration and United States Economic Growth," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 134-140, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:53:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1057_s11369-018-0084-2
    DOI: 10.1057/s11369-018-0084-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Congressional Budget Office, 2018. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028," Reports 53651, Congressional Budget Office.
    2. Congressional Budget Office, 2018. "An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028," Reports 54318, Congressional Budget Office.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Rauhut & Birgit Aigner-Walder & Rahel M. Schomaker, 2023. "Economic Theory and Migration," Springer Books, in: The Economics of Immigration Beyond the Cities, chapter 0, pages 21-50, Springer.

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