IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/buseco/v48y2013i2p113-120.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting the Downturn of the Great Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Herman O Stekler
  • Raj M Talwar

Abstract

We examine the quantitative forecasts of Wall Street Journal economists made during the Great Recession. The recession was not predicted in advance, and the severity of the decline was not recognized immediately. An important problem was that the real-time data did not reflect the actual state of the economy and contributed to the forecast errors. At times there was substantial disagreement among the forecasters. A time-series forecast disagreement might provide valuable information about impending recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Herman O Stekler & Raj M Talwar, 2013. "Forecasting the Downturn of the Great Recession," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 48(2), pages 113-120, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:48:y:2013:i:2:p:113-120
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/be/journal/v48/n2/pdf/be20134a.pdf
    File Function: Link to full text PDF
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/be/journal/v48/n2/full/be20134a.html
    File Function: Link to full text HTML
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stekler, Herman & Symington, Hilary, 2016. "Evaluating qualitative forecasts: The FOMC minutes, 2006–2010," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 559-570.
    2. Yongchen Zhao, 2020. "Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 16(2), pages 77-97, November.
    3. Sergey V. Smirnov & Daria A. Avdeeva, 2016. "Wishful Bias in Predicting Us Recessions: Indirect Evidence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 135/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    4. Herman O. Stekler & Hilary Symington, 2014. "How Did The Fomc View The Great Recession As It Was Happening?: Evaluating The Minutes From Fomc Meetings, 2006-2010," Working Papers 2014-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:48:y:2013:i:2:p:113-120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.