IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pai/apunup/es-36-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinantes del tipo de cambio real bajo un contexto estabilizador: Perú 1990-1994

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Zambrano Berendsohn

Abstract

La motivación por comprender la evolución del tipo de cambio real se origina en reconocer la importancia de esta variable para el desarrollo de nuestra economía, principalmente en el crecimiento del sector transable. Este trabajo aborda desde una perspectiva econométrica dinámica el análisis del tipo 4e cambio real duran te el Programa de Estabilización 1990-94. El modelo resultante es sometido satisfactoriamente a un set de tests. La evidencia empírica sostiene que el tipo de cambio real rechaza la hipótesis del cumplimiento de la teoría de la paridad de poder de compra, tanto en el corto como en el largo plazo. Es decir, es equivocado usar este enfoque para explicar la evolución del tipo de cambio real en 1990-94. Este hecho reforzó la motivación por encontrar un enfoque teórico alternativo válido empíricamente. Los resultados de largo plazo señalan que el diferencial entre tasas de interés en el país versus el extranjero en dólares ha sido el principal causal de los cambios del tipo de cambio real, la evolución del déficit fiscal no registró impactos significativos, mientras que la política de intervención no logró los efectos deseados.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Zambrano Berendsohn, 1995. "Determinantes del tipo de cambio real bajo un contexto estabilizador: Perú 1990-1994," Apuntes. Revista de ciencias sociales, Fondo Editorial, Universidad del Pacífico, vol. 22(36), pages 53-71.
    • Handle: RePEc:pai:apunup:es-36-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://revistas.up.edu.pe/index.php/apuntes/article/download/414/416
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    2. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," MPRA Paper 13843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1986. "Professor Hendry's Econometric Methodology," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 283-307, August.
    5. Mr. Guillermo Calvo & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1992. "Currency Substitution in Developing Countries: An Introduction," IMF Working Papers 1992/040, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1993. "On Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061546, April.
    7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    8. Patricio Arrau & Jorge Quiroz & Rómulo Chumacero, 1992. "Ahorro Fiscal y Tipo de Cambio Real," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 29(88), pages 349-386.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martín González‐Rozada & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2008. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1917-1936, November.
    2. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "Crisis Prevention: Lessons from Mexico and East Asia," NBER Working Papers 7233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Issler, Joao Victor & Notini, Hilton & Rodrigues, Claudia & Soares, Ana Flávia, 2013. "Constructing coincident indices of economic activity for the Latin American economy," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(1), April.
    4. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Sterilization of money inflows: Difficult (Calvo) or Easy (Reisen)?," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 24(2 Year 19), pages 263-285, December.
    5. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:67:n:1:a:4 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & Soto, Raimundo, 1994. "Capital flows and long-term equilibrium real exchange rates in Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1306, The World Bank.
    7. Raimundo Soto, "undated". "El Tipo de Cambio Real de Equilibrio: Un modelo no lineal de Series de Tiempo," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv094, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    8. Jean-Pierre Allegret, 2000. "Quel role pour les controles des mouvements internationaux de capitaux ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 81, pages 77-108.
    9. Joseph Joyce & Linda Kamas, 1997. "The relative importance of foreign and domestic shocks to output and prices in Mexico and Colombia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(3), pages 458-478, September.
    10. Edwards, Sebastian & Vegh, Carlos A., 1997. "Banks and macroeconomic disturbances under predetermined exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 239-278, October.
    11. Rustam Jamilov, 2013. "J-Curve Dynamics and the Marshall–Lerner Condition: Evidence from Azerbaijan," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 19(3), pages 313-323, February.
    12. Shashank Goel & V. Raveendra Saradhi, 2015. "Capital Flow Components and the Real Exchange Rate: Implications for India," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 14(2), pages 179-194, December.
    13. Fernando Arias & David Delgado & Daniel Parra & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2016. "Gross Capital Flows and their long-term Determinants for Developing Economies: A Panel Co-integration Approach," Borradores de Economia 932, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Reggio, Iliana, 2010. "On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 659-677, July.
    15. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Pereira, Alfredo, 1996. "The debt crisis: lessons of the 1980s for the 1990s," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-24, June.
    16. Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira & Paulo Gala, 2008. "Foreign savings, insufficiency of demand, and low growth," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 30(3), pages 315-334, April.
    17. Barry Eichengreen., 1997. "The Baring Crisis in a Mexican Mirror," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C97-084, University of California at Berkeley.
    18. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Okongwu, Chudozie, 1996. "Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 1-23, January.
    19. Dasgupta, Dipak & Ratha, Dilip, 2000. "What factors appear to drive private capital flows to developing countries? and how does official lending respond?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2392, The World Bank.
    20. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    21. Aiolfi, Marco & Catão, Luis A.V. & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Common factors in Latin America's business cycles," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 212-228, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pai:apunup:es-36-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Giit (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deiuppe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.