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Determinantes del tipo de cambio real bajo un contexto estabilizador: Perú 1990-1994

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  • Mario Zambrano Berendsohn

Abstract

La motivación por comprender la evolución del tipo de cambio real se origina en reconocer la importancia de esta variable para el desarrollo de nuestra economía, principalmente en el crecimiento del sector transable. Este trabajo aborda desde una perspectiva econométrica dinámica el análisis del tipo 4e cambio real duran te el Programa de Estabilización 1990-94. El modelo resultante es sometido satisfactoriamente a un set de tests. La evidencia empírica sostiene que el tipo de cambio real rechaza la hipótesis del cumplimiento de la teoría de la paridad de poder de compra, tanto en el corto como en el largo plazo. Es decir, es equivocado usar este enfoque para explicar la evolución del tipo de cambio real en 1990-94. Este hecho reforzó la motivación por encontrar un enfoque teórico alternativo válido empíricamente. Los resultados de largo plazo señalan que el diferencial entre tasas de interés en el país versus el extranjero en dólares ha sido el principal causal de los cambios del tipo de cambio real, la evolución del déficit fiscal no registró impactos significativos, mientras que la política de intervención no logró los efectos deseados.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Zambrano Berendsohn, 1995. "Determinantes del tipo de cambio real bajo un contexto estabilizador: Perú 1990-1994," Apuntes. Revista de ciencias sociales, Fondo Editorial, Universidad del Pacífico, vol. 22(36), pages 53-71.
    • Handle: RePEc:pai:apunup:es-36-04
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