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The Incidence of Long-term Unemployment in Australia 1978-2003

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Dixon

    (The University of Melbourne)

  • G.C. Lim

    (The University of Melbourne)

Abstract

This paper explores the following question - Has there been any long-run increase (or decrease) in the ‘incidence’ of long-term unemployment once we have corrected for cyclical factors? Our research leads us to conclude that: (i) the incidence of male long-term unemployment has been neither rising nor falling, once we allow for cyclical factors, (ii) the incidence of female long-term unemployment has been rising, once we allow for cyclical factors. We conjecture that there is a link between increasing female participation (which we take to be a proxy for increasing ‘attachment to the labour market’ – and thus attachment to unemployment as well as employment) and the increasing incidence of female long-term unemployment. Experimenting with policy dummies, we find no evidence that policy has permanent effects on the incidence of long-term unemployment for either males or females but we do find some evidence that policy has temporary effects for females.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Dixon & G.C. Lim, 2004. "The Incidence of Long-term Unemployment in Australia 1978-2003," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 7(4), pages 501-513, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ozl:journl:v:7:y:2004:i:4:p:501-513
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bruce Chapman & Cezary Kapuscinski, 2000. "Avoiding Recessions and Australian Long-Term Unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 418, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    2. Jeff Borland & Steven Kennedy, 1998. "Dimensions, Structure and History of Australian Unemployment," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.),Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Chapman, B.J. & Junankar, P.N. & Kapuscinski, C.A., 1992. "Long Term Unemployment : Projections and Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 274, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeff Borland, 2009. "What Happens to the Australian Labour Market in Recessions?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 42(2), pages 232-242, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment; Models; Duration; Incidence; and Job Search Econometric and Statistical Methods; Special Topics; Econometric Methods: Single Equation Models; single Variables: Time-Series Models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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