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What’s behind Smooth Dividends? Evidence from Structural Estimation

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  • Yufeng Wu

Abstract

I study the driving forces behind dividend smoothing by developing a dynamic agency model in which dividends signal the earnings persistence of firms. In equilibrium, managers treat dividends and earnings as informational substitutes. They smooth dividends relative to earnings to smooth negative news releases and lower their turnover risk. Empirical estimates of the model parameters imply that 39$\%$ of observed dividend smoothness among U.S. firms is driven by managers’ own career concerns, not shareholders’ preferences. Managers cut investments and adjust external financing policies to accommodate this career-concern-based dividend smoothing. These effects lead to a 2$\%$ decline in firm value. Received May 28, 2016; editorial decision September 13, 2017 by Editor David Denis. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Suggested Citation

  • Yufeng Wu, 2018. "What’s behind Smooth Dividends? Evidence from Structural Estimation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(10), pages 3979-4016.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:31:y:2018:i:10:p:3979-4016.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhx119
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    Cited by:

    1. Shushu Liao & Marco Errico, 2023. "Corporate investment and stock market valuation," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(3-4), pages 795-819, March.
    2. Lorenzo Burlon & Manuel A. Muñoz & Frank Smets, 2024. "The Optimal Quantity of CBDC in a Bank-Based Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 172-217, October.
    3. Manuel A. Muñoz, 2021. "Rethinking Capital Regulation: The Case for a Dividend Prudential Target," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(3), pages 271-336, September.
    4. Anshu Agrawal, 2020. "Modified Total Interpretive Structural Model of Corporate Financial Flexibility," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 21(4), pages 369-388, December.
    5. Kathryn E. Easterday & Pradyot K. Sen, 2023. "Another look at the dividend-price relationship in the accounting valuation framework," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 879-925, October.
    6. Stephen J. Terry & Toni M. Whited & Anastasia A. Zakolyukina, 2020. "Information versus Investment," Working Papers 2020-110, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    7. Charles G. Ham & Zachary R. Kaplan & Steven Utke, 2023. "Attention to dividends, inattention to earnings?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 265-306, March.
    8. Arin, K. Peren & Devereux, Kevin & Mazur, Mieszko, 2023. "Taxes and firm investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    9. Hajda, Jakub & Nikolov, Boris, 2022. "Product market strategy and corporate policies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 932-964.
    10. Stefano Colonnello & Roberto Marfè & Qizhou Xiong, 2021. "Housing Yields," Working Papers 2021:21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", revised 2021.
    11. Stephen J. Terry, 2023. "The Macro Impact of Short‐Termism," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(5), pages 1881-1912, September.
    12. Xu Tian, 2022. "Uncertainty and the Shadow Banking Crisis: Estimates from a Dynamic Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 1469-1496, February.

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