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Uninformative Feedback and Risk Taking: Evidence from Retail Forex Trading
[Two methods of reducing overconfidence]

Author

Listed:
  • Itzhak Ben-David
  • Justin Birru
  • Viktor Prokopenya

Abstract

We document evidence consistent with retail traders in the Forex market attributing random success to their own skill and, as a consequence, increasing risk taking. Although past performance does not predict future success for these traders, traders increase trade sizes, trade size variability, and number of trades with gains, and less with losses. There is a large discontinuity in all of these trading variables around zero past week returns: e.g., traders increase their trade size dramatically following winning weeks, relative to losing weeks. The effects are stronger for novice traders, consistent with more intense “learning” in early trading periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Itzhak Ben-David & Justin Birru & Viktor Prokopenya, 2018. "Uninformative Feedback and Risk Taking: Evidence from Retail Forex Trading [Two methods of reducing overconfidence]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(6), pages 2009-2036.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:22:y:2018:i:6:p:2009-2036.
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    3. Hu, Xiao & Jin, Ye & Li, Yilin & Wu, Banggang, 2023. "Learning from credit default," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Retail trading; Futures; Risk taking; Overconfidence; Self-attribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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