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Financial Speculators' Underperformance: Learning, Self‐Selection, and Endogenous Liquidity

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  • REZA MAHANI
  • DAN BERNHARDT

Abstract

We develop an equilibrium model of learning by rational traders to reconcile several empirical regularities: Cross sectionally, most individual speculators lose money; large speculators outperform small speculators; past performance positively affects subsequent trade intensity; most new traders lose money and cease speculation; and performance shows persistence. Learning from trading generates substantial endogenous liquidity, reducing bid–ask spreads and the impact of exogenous liquidity shocks on asset prices, but amplifying the effects of real shocks. Introducing slightly overconfident traders increases bid–ask spreads, hurting all traders. Finally, behavioral theories cannot reconcile all of these empirical regularities.

Suggested Citation

  • Reza Mahani & Dan Bernhardt, 2007. "Financial Speculators' Underperformance: Learning, Self‐Selection, and Endogenous Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1313-1340, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:62:y:2007:i:3:p:1313-1340
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2007.01237.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Hu, Xiao & Jin, Ye & Li, Yilin & Wu, Banggang, 2023. "Learning from credit default," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    2. Li, ZhouPing & Ge, RuYi & Guo, XiaoShuang & Cai, Lingfei, 2021. "Can individual investors learn from experience in online P2P lending? Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    3. Cici, Gjergji & Gehde-Trapp, Monika & Göricke, Marc-André & Kempf, Alexander, 2014. "What they did in their previous life: The investment value of mutual fund managers' experience outside the financial sector," CFR Working Papers 14-11, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    4. John Y. Campbell & Tarun Ramadorai & Benjamin Ranish, 2014. "Getting Better or Feeling Better? How Equity Investors Respond to Investment Experience," NBER Working Papers 20000, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Barrot, Jean-Noel & Kaniel, Ron & Sraer, David, 2016. "Are retail traders compensated for providing liquidity?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 146-168.
    6. Juhani T. Linnainmaa, 2011. "Why Do (Some) Households Trade So Much?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(5), pages 1630-1666.
    7. Fung, Scott & Tsai, Shih-Chuan, 2021. "The price discovery role of day traders in futures market: Evidence from different types of day traders," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 53-77.
    8. Ben-David, Itzhak & Birru, Justin & Prokopenya, Viktor, 2015. "Uninformative Feedback and Risk Taking: Evidence from Retail Forex Trading," Working Paper Series 2014-17, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    9. Ma, T. & Fraser-Mackenzie, P.A.F. & Sung, M. & Kansara, A.P. & Johnson, J.E.V., 2022. "Are the least successful traders those most likely to exit the market? A survival analysis contribution to the efficient market debate," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 330-345.
    10. Itzhak Ben-David & Justin Birru & Viktor Prokopenya, 2018. "Uninformative Feedback and Risk Taking: Evidence from Retail Forex Trading [Two methods of reducing overconfidence]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(6), pages 2009-2036.
    11. Chiang, Yao-Min & Hirshleifer, David & Qian, Yiming & Sherman, Ann, 2009. "Learning to Fail? Evidence from Frequent IPO Investors," MPRA Paper 16854, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2009.
    12. Hayley, Simon & Marsh, Ian W., 2016. "What do retail FX traders learn?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 16-38.
    13. Gemayel, Roland & Preda, Alex, 2021. "Performance and learning in an ambiguous environment: A study of cryptocurrency traders," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    14. Suman Gupta & Vinay Goyal & Vinay Kumar Kalakbandi & Sankarshan Basu, 2018. "Overconfidence, trading volume and liquidity effect in Asia’s Giants: evidence from pre-, during- and post-global recession," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 45(3), pages 235-257, September.
    15. Forman, John & Horton, Joanne, 2019. "Overconfidence, position size, and the link to performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 291-309.

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