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Rushing into the American Dream? House Prices Growth and the Timing of Homeownership

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  • Sumit Agarwal
  • Luojia Hu
  • Xing Huang

Abstract

We use the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel data set to empirically examine how past house price growth influences the timing of homeownership. We find that the median individual in metropolitan areas with the highest quartile house price growth becomes a homeowner 5 years earlier than that in areas with the lowest quartile house price growth. The result is consistent with a life cycle housing-demand model in which high past price growth increases expectations of future price growth thus accelerating home purchases at young ages. We show that extrapolative expectations formed by homebuyers are a necessary channel to explain the result.

Suggested Citation

  • Sumit Agarwal & Luojia Hu & Xing Huang, 2016. "Rushing into the American Dream? House Prices Growth and the Timing of Homeownership," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(6), pages 2183-2218.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:20:y:2016:i:6:p:2183-2218.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rof/rfv063
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Anne K. Thompson, 2012. "What Have They Been Thinking? Homebuyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 265-315.
    2. Johannes Stroebel & Joseph Vavra, 2019. "House Prices, Local Demand, and Retail Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1391-1436.
    3. Daniel K. Fetter, 2013. "How Do Mortgage Subsidies Affect Home Ownership? Evidence from the Mid-century GI Bills," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 111-147, May.
    4. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    5. Donghoon Lee & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2010. "An introduction to the FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel," Staff Reports 479, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shang, Longfei & Saffar, Walid, 2023. "Employment Protection and Household Mortgage Debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    2. Luojia Hu & Xing Huang & Andrei Simonov, 2020. "Credit Score Doctors," Working Paper Series WP-2020-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. Antonio Gargano & Marco Giacoletti & Elvis Jarnecic, 2023. "Local Experiences, Search, and Spillovers in the Housing Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 1015-1053, April.
    4. Dongshin Kim & Youngme Seo & Julia Freybote, 2021. "Urbanity, Financial Crisis and the Timing of Homebuying Decisions by Young Households," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 481-507, May.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance

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