IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/revage/v30y2008i4p604-622.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bottlenecks, Drought, and Oil Price Spikes: Impact on U.S. Ethanol and Agricultural Sectors

Author

Listed:
  • Simla Tokgoz
  • Amani Elobeid
  • Jacinto Fabiosa
  • Dermot J. Hayes
  • Bruce A. Babcock
  • Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu
  • Fengxia Dong
  • Chad E. Hart

Abstract

We project U.S. ethanol production and its impact on planted acreage, crop prices, livestock production, trade, and retail food costs. The projections are made using a multicommodity, multicountry, partial equilibrium model. Results indicate that expanded U.S. ethanol production will cause long-run crop prices to increase. In response to higher feed costs, livestock farmgate prices increase enough to cover the feed cost increases. If crude oil prices increase, the U.S. ethanol sector expands. Results of a 1988-type drought scenario combined with a large mandate for ethanol consumption show higher crop prices, a drop in livestock production, and higher food prices. Copyright 2008, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Simla Tokgoz & Amani Elobeid & Jacinto Fabiosa & Dermot J. Hayes & Bruce A. Babcock & Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu & Fengxia Dong & Chad E. Hart, 2008. "Bottlenecks, Drought, and Oil Price Spikes: Impact on U.S. Ethanol and Agricultural Sectors," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 604-622.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revage:v:30:y:2008:i:4:p:604-622
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-9353.2008.00436.x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Koizumi, Tatsuji & Yanagishima, Koji, 2005. "Impacts of the Brazilian Ethanol Program on the World Ethanol and Sugar Market: An Econometric Simulation Approach," Japanese Journal of Agricultural Economics (formerly Japanese Journal of Rural Economics), Agricultural Economics Society of Japan (AESJ), vol. 7, pages 1-17.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Héctor M. Núñez & Andrés Trujillo-Barrera, 2015. "Impact of U.S. Biofuel Policy in the Presence of Drastic Climate Conditions," Working Papers DTE 585, CIDE, División de Economía.
    2. Hammoudeh, S.M. & Sarafrazi, S. & Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J., 2011. "The Dynamics of Energy-Grain Prices with Open Interest," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2011-19, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    3. Mallory, Mindy L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2012. "How market efficiency and the theory of storage link corn and ethanol markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2157-2166.
    4. Wu, Feng & Guan, Zhengfei & Yu, Fan & Myers, Robert J., 2013. "The spillover effects of biofuel policy on participation in the conservation reserve program," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1755-1770.
    5. Hayes, Dermot J. & Babcock, Bruce A. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Elobeid, Amani E. & Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) & Dong, Fengxia & Hart, Chad E. & Chavez, Eddie C. & Pan, Suwen & Carriquiry, M, 2009. "Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects on Grain and Livestock Sectors, and Implications for Food Prices and Consumers," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(2), April.
    6. Kallas, Zein & Gil, José María, 2015. "Do the Spanish want biodiesel? A case study in the Catalan transport sector," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 398-406.
    7. Suh, Dong Hee & Moss, Charles B., 2014. "Exploring Agricultural Production Systems: Interactions between the Crop and Livestock Sectors," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170149, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Nazlioglu, Saban, 2011. "World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2935-2943, May.
    9. Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) & Tokgoz, Simla & Wailes, Eric J. & Chavez, Eddie C., 2009. "A Quantitative Analysis of Trade Policy Responses to High Agricultural Commodity Prices," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51805, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Miljkovic, Dragan & Shaik, Saleem & Braun, Dane, 2012. "Impact of biofuel policies on livestock production in the United States," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 817-831.
    11. Ahdi N. Ajmi & Rangan Gupta & Monique Kruger & Nicola Schoeman & Leoné Walters, 2014. "The Nonparametric Relationship between Oil and South African Agricultural Prices," Working Papers 201461, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Sari, Ramazan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael, 2012. "Causality between market liquidity and depth for energy and grains," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1683-1692.
    13. Moschini, GianCarlo & Cui, Jingbo & Lapan, Harvey E., 2012. "Economics of Biofuels: An Overview of Policies, Impacts and Prospects," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 1(3), pages 1-28, December.
    14. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Do food and oil prices co-move?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 456-467.
    15. Chantret, Francois & Gohin, Alexandre, 2009. "The Long-Run Impact of Energy Prices on World Agricultural Markets: The Role of Macro-Economic Linkages," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51560, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Hector, Nuñez & Andres, Trujillo-Barrera, 2014. "Impact of U.S. Biofuel Policy in the Presence of Uncertain Climate Conditions," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170620, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Baker, Mindy Lyn, 2009. "Three essays concerning agriculture and energy," ISU General Staff Papers 200901010800001849, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    18. Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) & Hart, Chad E., 2009. "Impact of Biofuel Industry Expansion on Grain Utilization and Distribution: Preliminary Results of Iowa Grain and Biofuel Survey," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46847, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    19. Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Beghin, John C. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Tokgoz, Simla & Yu, Tun-Hsiang, 2010. "The Global Bioenergy Expansion: How Large Are the Food−Fuel Trade-Offs?," Staff General Research Papers Archive 31603, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    20. Gohin, A. & Chantret, F., 2010. "The long-run impact of energy prices on world agricultural markets: The role of macro-economic linkages," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 333-339, January.
    21. Dodder, Rebecca S. & Kaplan, P. Ozge & Elobeid, Amani & Tokgoz, Simla & Secchi, Silvia & Kurkalova, Lyubov A., 2015. "Impact of energy prices and cellulosic biomass supply on agriculture, energy, and the environment: An integrated modeling approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 77-87.
    22. Williams, J., 2013. "Wheat and corn price skewness and volatility: Risk management implications for farmers and end users," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, vol. 21, pages 1-20.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jacinto F. Fabiosa & John C. Beghin & Fengxia Dong & JAmani Elobeid & Simla Tokgoz & Tun-Hsiang Yu, 2010. "Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 86(4), pages 687-706.
    2. Koizumi, Tatsuji & Ohga, Keiji, 2008. "Impacts of the Brazilian Bio-Diesel Program on the World Soybean and Soybean Products Market: An Econometric Simulation Approach," Japanese Journal of Agricultural Economics (formerly Japanese Journal of Rural Economics), Agricultural Economics Society of Japan (AESJ), vol. 10, pages 1-21.
    3. Peters, May & Somwaru, Agapi & Hansen, James M. & Seeley, Ralph & Dirkse, Steve, 2009. "Modeling Biofuels Expansion in a Changing Global Environment," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51732, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Cockburn, John & Decaluwé, Bernard & Fofana, Ismaël & Robichaud, Véronique, 2008. "Trade, Growth and Gender in Developing Countries: A Comparison of Ghana, Honduras, Senegal and Uganda," Conference papers 331676, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Koizumi, Tatsuji & Ohga, Keiji, 2009. "Impact of the Expansion of Brazilian FFV Utilization and U.S. Biofuel Policy Amendment on the World Sugar and Corn Markets: An Econometric Simulation Approach," Japanese Journal of Agricultural Economics (formerly Japanese Journal of Rural Economics), Agricultural Economics Society of Japan (AESJ), vol. 11, pages 1-24.
    6. Koizumi, Tatsuji & Ohga, Keiji, 2006. "Impacts of the Chinese Fuel-Ethanol Program on the World Corn Market: An Econometric Simulation Approach," Japanese Journal of Agricultural Economics (formerly Japanese Journal of Rural Economics), Agricultural Economics Society of Japan (AESJ), vol. 8, pages 1-15.
    7. Simla Tokgoz & Amani Elobeid, 2006. "Analysis of the Link between Ethanol, Energy, and Crop Markets, An," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications (archive only) 06-wp435, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:revage:v:30:y:2008:i:4:p:604-622. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press or Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.