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The Lucas Critique, Policy Invariance and Multiple Equilibria

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  • Roger E. A. Farmer

Abstract

The Lucas Critique of Econometric Policy Evaluation argues that the parameters of econometric models are subject to theoretical cross-equation restrictions which follow from the fact that the endogenous variables of the models are chosen optimally by forward-looking agents. In this paper I argue that these facts alone are insufficient to generate such restrictions. I present an example of a model in which there exist multiple stationary rational expectations equilibria one of which is supported by a process-invariant forecast rule. Immunity to the Lucas Critique is proposed as a selection criterion in models with multiple equilibria.

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  • Roger E. A. Farmer, 1991. "The Lucas Critique, Policy Invariance and Multiple Equilibria," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 321-332.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:58:y:1991:i:2:p:321-332.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
    2. Ariane Szafarz, 2015. "Market Efficiency and Crises:Don’t Throw the Baby out with the Bathwater," Bankers, Markets & Investors, ESKA Publishing, issue 139, pages 20-26, November-.
    3. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2007. "Determinacy, Learnability, and Monetary Policy Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1177-1212, August.
    4. Bentour, El Mostafa, 2013. "Oil Prices, Drought Periods and Growth Forecasts in Morocco," MPRA Paper 52892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jess Benhabib & Roger E.A. Farmer, 2000. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(3), pages 523-550, July.
    6. Jesus Vazquez, 2002. "Does the Lucas critique apply during hyperinflation?: empirical evidence from four hyperinflationary episodes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(11), pages 1389-1397.
    7. repec:cvs:starer:9613 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. María José Gutiérrez & Jesús Vázquez, "undated". "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Post-War U.S. Interest Rates and Changes in the Federal Reserve Chairman. Is There a Link?," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 01-03, FEDEA.
    9. Ariane Szafarz, 2009. "How Did Financial-Crisis-Based Criticisms of Market Efficiency Get It So Wrong?," Working Papers CEB 09-048.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    10. A L Tiffin & P J Dawson, 1997. "Measuring Oligopolistic Distortion In The Uk Frozen Potato Product Sector: A Calibration Modelling Approach," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1‐3), pages 300-312, January.
    11. Vázquez Jesús, 2004. "Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates during U.S. Post-War: A Case for the Lucas Proof Equilibrium?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-41, March.
    12. Vázquez Pérez, Jesús, 2002. "Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    13. Libero Monteforte & Stefano Siviero, 2010. "The economic consequences of euro-area macro-modelling shortcuts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(19), pages 2399-2415.
    14. Farmer, Roger E A, 1991. "Sticky Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1369-1379, November.
    15. Siviero, S. & Terlizzese, D. & Visco, I., 1999. "Are Model-Based Inflation Forecasts Used in Monetary Policymaking? A Case Study," Papers 357, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
    16. Mitra, Kaushik, 2003. "Desirability of Nominal GDP Targeting under Adaptive Learning," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(2), pages 197-220, April.
    17. Libero Monteforte & Stefano Siviero, 2002. "The economic consequences of euro area modelling shortcuts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 458, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Roger E. A. Farmer, 1996. "A theory of business cycles," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 91-109, Autumn.

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