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Complexity and Loan Performance: Evidence from the Securitization of Commercial Mortgages

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  • Craig H. Furfine

Abstract

Between 2001 and 2007, the complexity of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) increased substantially. The median size of commercial mortgage loan pools tripled and the median number of AAA-rated tranches doubled. I examine whether deal complexity is related to loan performance by analyzing a sample of approximately 40,000 commercial mortgage loans from 334 CMBS deals. I find that loan performance is worse for loans in more complex securitizations. However, neither the price of a deal’s securities nor a deal’s risk retention reflected that complexity correlates with lower loan quality. These findings present a challenge for theories of optimal security design.

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  • Craig H. Furfine, 2014. "Complexity and Loan Performance: Evidence from the Securitization of Commercial Mortgages," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(2), pages 154-187.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rcorpf:v:2:y:2014:i:2:p:154-187.
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    3. Jed J. Neilson & Stephen G. Ryan & K. Philip Wang & Biqin Xie, 2022. "Asset‐Level Transparency and the (E)valuation of Asset‐Backed Securities," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 1131-1183, June.
    4. Kempf, Elisabeth, 2017. "The Job Rating Game: The Effects of Revolving Doors on Analyst Incentives," Working Papers 258, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    5. José María Liberti & Mitchell A. Petersen, 2018. "Information: Hard and Soft," NBER Working Papers 25075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Adelino, Manuel & Scott Frame, W. & Gerardi, Kristopher, 2017. "The effect of large investors on asset quality: Evidence from subprime mortgage securities," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 34-51.
    7. Manuel Adelino & Kristopher Gerardi & Barney Hartman-Glaser, 2016. "Are Lemons Sold First? Dynamic Signaling in the Mortgage Market," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    8. Marc Arnold & Dustin Schuette & Alexander Wagner, 2021. "Neglected Risk in Financial Innovation: Evidence from Structured Product Counterparty Exposure," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 27(2), pages 287-325, March.
    9. Liu, Wenzhen & Wu, Wenfeng, 2023. "Underwriter reputation and the pricing of securities: Evidence from asset-backed securities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    10. Deku, Solomon Y. & Kara, Alper & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2019. "Do reputable issuers provide better-quality securitizations?," Working Paper Series 2236, European Central Bank.
    11. Gürtler, Marc & Koch, Florian, 2021. "Multidimensional skin in the game," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    12. Xudong An & Lawrence R. Cordell & Nicholas Smith, 2023. "CMBS Market Evolution and Emerging Risks," Working Papers 23-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    13. Martin Hibbeln & Werner Osterkamp, 2024. "Simple is simply not enough—features versus labels of complex financial securities," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 113-150, July.
    14. Deku, Solomon Y. & Kara, Alper & Marques-Ibanez, David, 2022. "Bank reputation and securitization quality: European evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    15. Adelino, Manuel & Gerardi, Kristopher & Hartman-Glaser, Barney, 2019. "Are lemons sold first? Dynamic signaling in the mortgage market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 1-25.

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