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Predicting the Impact of the U.S. Housing Crisis and "Great Recession" on Central City Revenues

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  • Howard Chernick
  • Adam Langley
  • Andrew Reschovsky

Abstract

Using data from 1983 to 2009 on revenues, housing prices, and incomes, we forecast the impact of the U.S. housing crisis and "Great Recession" on the revenues of the nation's largest central cities for 2009--2013. We develop the concept of constructed cities, to allow valid comparisons across cities in light of varying expenditure responsibilities of city governments. We predict that general revenue per capita in the average central city will decline in real terms over the 4-year period by 3.5 percent. The largest revenue reductions occur in constructed cities where housing prices fell substantially and state aid was sharply reduced. Copyright 2012, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Howard Chernick & Adam Langley & Andrew Reschovsky, 2012. "Predicting the Impact of the U.S. Housing Crisis and "Great Recession" on Central City Revenues," Publius: The Journal of Federalism, CSF Associates Inc., vol. 42(3), pages 467-493, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:publus:v:42:y:2012:i:3:p:467-493
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/publius/pjs019
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    Cited by:

    1. Bo Zhao & David Coyne, 2017. "Walking a Tightrope: Are U.S. State and Local Governments on a Fiscally Sustainable Path?," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 3-23, September.
    2. Zhao, Bo, 2016. "Saving for a rainy day: Estimating the needed size of U.S. state budget stabilization funds," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 130-152.
    3. Chernick, Howard & Reschovsky, Andrew & Newman, Sandra, 2021. "The effect of the housing crisis on the finances of central cities," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. Howard Chernick & David Copeland & Andrew Reschovsky, 2020. "The Fiscal Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Cities: An Initial Assessment," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 73(3), pages 699-732, September.

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