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Job polarization: an historical perspective

Author

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  • Erik Buyst
  • Maarten Goos
  • Anna Salomons

Abstract

This paper uses historical labour market data for Belgium for the period 1846–2011 to illustrate how the employment impacts of the ongoing Digital Revolution after 1980 compare to those of the Second Industrial Revolution before 1980. Our analyses show that the period 1846–1947 was characterized by economy-wide skill-upgrading due to an increase in the demand for skilled relative to unskilled workers because of skill-biased technological change (SBTC). The period 1947–81 is characterized by particularly high labour market turbulence, in part due to a gradual switch from economy-wide skill-upgrading to job polarization. Consequently, the impact of the ongoing Digital Revolution on labour markets after 1980 is not uniquely characterized by exceptionally high labour market turbulence but by the nature of changes in the composition of jobs, namely a process of job polarization. To explain job polarization, the paper discusses the hypothesis of Routine-Biased Technological Change (RBTC) that has recently emerged in the academic literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Erik Buyst & Maarten Goos & Anna Salomons, 2018. "Job polarization: an historical perspective," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 461-474.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:34:y:2018:i:3:p:461-474.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oxrep/gry003
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio Martins-Neto & Nanditha Mathew & Pierre Mohnen & Tania Treibich, 2024. "Is There Job Polarization in Developing Economies? A Review and Outlook," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 39(2), pages 259-288.
    2. Hick, Rod & Marx, Ive, 2022. "Poor Workers in Rich Democracies: On the Nature of In-Work Poverty and Its Relationship to Labour Market Policies," IZA Discussion Papers 15163, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Toon Van Overbeke, 2023. "Conflict or cooperation? Exploring the relationship between cooperative institutions and robotisation," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 61(3), pages 550-573, September.
    4. Haapanala, Henri & Marx, Ive & Parolin, Zachary, 2022. "Robots and Unions: The Moderating Effect of Organised Labour on Technological Unemployment," IZA Discussion Papers 15080, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Azio Barani, 2021. "Innovazione tecnologica e lavoro: automazione, occupazione e impatti socio-economici," QUADERNI DI ECONOMIA DEL LAVORO, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 0(114), pages 51-79.
    6. Kerstin Hotte & Melline Somers & Angelos Theodorakopoulos, 2022. "Technology and jobs: A systematic literature review," Papers 2204.01296, arXiv.org.

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