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Sustained investment surges

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  • Emiliano Libman
  • Juan Antonio Montecino
  • Arslan Razmi

Abstract

Existing empirical studies have mainly focused on determinants of average investment levels. Instead, we investigate episodes of accelerated capital stock growth having a duration of eight years or longer. We find that episodes are relatively common, even in low-growth regions, but more so in middle-income and Asian countries. After identifying 175 episodes between 1950 and 2014, we employ probit analysis to explore their characteristics. Turning points in investment tend to be preceded by macroeconomic stability, real exchange rate undervaluation, and net capital outflows (especially portfolio outflows). We also find a negative correlation with the capital to output ratio and per capita GDP, and a positive correlation with a human capital index. Investment surges tend to be associated with changes in the trade balance and, to a (statistically) weaker extent, with structural change.

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  • Emiliano Libman & Juan Antonio Montecino & Arslan Razmi, 2019. "Sustained investment surges," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1071-1095.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:71:y:2019:i:4:p:1071-1095.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpy071
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    Cited by:

    1. Arslan Razmi, 2021. "Capital inflows, sustained investment surges and the role of external economies of scale in a developing economy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 365-387, May.
    2. Palazzo, Gabriel & Rapetti, Martín, 2023. "From macro to micro and macro back: Macroeconomic trade elasticities in a developing economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 223-252.
    3. Gabriel Porcile & Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, 2019. "New Structuralism and the balance-ofpayments constraint," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 7(4), pages 517-536, October.
    4. Cécile Couharde & Carl Grekou & Valérie Mignon & Florian Morvillier, 2024. "Reconciling contrasting views on the growth effect of currency undervaluations," Working Papers hal-04568924, HAL.
    5. Jean‐Marc B. Atsebi, 2024. "Igniting growth surges: Lessons from the past," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(2), pages 525-569, April.
    6. Basil Oberholzer, 2021. "Managing commodity booms: Dutch disease and economic performance," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 74(299), pages 307-323.
    7. Ugurlu, Esra Nur & Razmi, Arslan, 2023. "Political economy of real exchange rate levels," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 918-940.
    8. Koopman, Eline & Wacker, Konstantin M., 2023. "Drivers of growth accelerations: What role for capital accumulation?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    9. Luca TAUSCH & Guilherme MAGACHO, 2024. "Challenges in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy for Developing Countries: Estimating Capital-Use Matrices and Imported Needs," Working Paper 3f15bd28-99b0-42ff-863c-4, Agence française de développement.
    10. Robert A. Blecker, 2022. "New advances and controversies in the framework of balance‐of‐payments‐constrained growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 429-467, April.
    11. Hoyos, Mateo & Libman, Emiliano & Razmi, Arslan, 2021. "The structural outcomes of investment surges," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 245-255.
    12. Jakob de Haan & Kersten Stamm & Shu Yu, 2024. "Drivers of Investment Accelerations," CESifo Working Paper Series 11100, CESifo.
    13. Adalmir Marquetti & Luiz Eduardo Ourique & Henrique Morrone, 2020. "A Classical-Marxian Growth Model of Catching Up and the Cases of China, Japan, and India: 1980–2014," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 52(2), pages 312-334, June.
    14. Firat Demir & Arslan Razmi, 2022. "The Real Exchange Rate And Development Theory, Evidence, Issues And Challenges," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 386-428, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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