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The structural outcomes of investment surges

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  • Hoyos, Mateo
  • Libman, Emiliano
  • Razmi, Arslan

Abstract

We study the extent to which countries undergo structural change during and after episodes of sustained investment surges. In particular, we explore the evolution of trade flows, considering (i) exports sophistication or complexity, (ii) exports diversification, and (iii) capital goods imports. Using the episodes identified by Libman et al. (2019), we document the heterogeneous nature of these episodes and find that, while imports of capital goods increase, they are not systematically related to changes in sophistication, complexity and diversification of exports, at least for the available sample of 130 episodes over the period 1962-2014. High investment may often be a necessary but not sufficient condition for structural change.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoyos, Mateo & Libman, Emiliano & Razmi, Arslan, 2021. "The structural outcomes of investment surges," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 245-255.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:58:y:2021:i:c:p:245-255
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2021.06.001
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    1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007. "What you export matters," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
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    5. Ros, Jaime, 2013. "Rethinking Economic Development, Growth, and Institutions," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199684816.
    6. Emiliano Libman & Juan Antonio Montecino & Arslan Razmi, 2019. "Sustained investment surges," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1071-1095.
    7. Cesar A. Hidalgo & Ricardo Hausmann, 2009. "The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity," Papers 0909.3890, arXiv.org.
    8. Juan Ricardo Perilla Jimenez, 2019. "Mainstream and evolutionary views of technology, economic growth and catching up," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 823-852, July.
    9. Iacovone, Leonardo & Javorcik, Beata S., 2008. "Multi-product exporters : diversification and micro-level dynamics," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4723, The World Bank.
    10. Sanjaya Lall, 2000. "The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports, 1985-98," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 337-369.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chrimes, Tommy & Gootjes, Bram & Kose, M. Ayhan & Wheeler, Collette, 2024. "The Great Reversal," CEPR Discussion Papers 19090, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Jakob de Haan & Kersten Stamm & Shu Yu, 2024. "Drivers of Investment Accelerations," CESifo Working Paper Series 11100, CESifo.
    3. Luca TAUSCH & Guilherme MAGACHO, 2024. "Challenges in the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy for Developing Countries: Estimating Capital-Use Matrices and Imported Needs," Working Paper 3f15bd28-99b0-42ff-863c-4, Agence française de développement.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital accumulation; Diversification; Economic complexity; Development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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