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Positive illusions and the temptation to borrow

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  • Eva Kløve
  • Halvor Mehlum

Abstract

We provide an explanation of the low willingness to save that is observed in many developing countries. Our explanation is based on the hypothesis that people have an over-optimistic outlook. As discussed in the psychological literature, an illusionary positive view of the future may be a good thing. However, we show that it can lead individuals to accumulate unsustainable levels of debt. Using survey data from South Africa, we confirm that poor people are indeed overly optimistic, and that optimism is positively and significantly related to borrowing in general, and to expensive borrowing in particular.

Suggested Citation

  • Eva Kløve & Halvor Mehlum, 2019. "Positive illusions and the temptation to borrow," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(3), pages 623-644.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:71:y:2019:i:3:p:623-644.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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