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Welfare-improving income tax reforms: a microsimulation analysis

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  • John Creedy
  • Nicolas Hérault

Abstract

Extensive research has shown that few robust results regarding the optimal tax structure are available. Moreover, the stylized models used in optimal tax analyses are not appropriate for practical policy advice. This paper proposes a method of examining income tax reforms designed to move towards an optimal structure. It uses a behavioural microsimulation model in which the full extent of population heterogeneity is represented along with all the details of highly complex tax and transfer systems. The approach is illustrated using the Australian microsimulation model MITTS. The results show that welfare changes for the Australian income tax structure are not symmetric with respect to increases and decreases in tax rates. In addition, the extent of inequality aversion was found to play a much larger role in the determination of the direction of tax rate changes than the form of the welfare metric or the specification of adult equivalence scales. Copyright 2012 Oxford University Press 2011 All rights reserved, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • John Creedy & Nicolas Hérault, 2012. "Welfare-improving income tax reforms: a microsimulation analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(1), pages 128-150, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:64:y:2012:i:1:p:128-150
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpr029
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    Cited by:

    1. Nazila Alinaghi & John Creedy & Norman Gemmell, 2020. "The Redistributive Effects of a Minimum Wage Increase in New Zealand: A Microsimulation Analysis," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 53(4), pages 517-538, December.
    2. Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman & Hérault, Nicolas & Mok, Penny, 2018. "Microsimulation Analysis of Optimal Income Tax Reforms. An Application to New Zealand," GLO Discussion Paper Series 213, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    3. Nazila Alinaghi & John Creedy & Norman Gemmell, 2021. "Designing Personal Income Tax and Transfer Reforms: Alternative Modelling Approaches," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 54(4), pages 445-461, December.
    4. Maria Martinez Cillero & Miguel Tovar Reaños, 2023. "Farm technical and environmental efficiency and subsidy redistribution in Ireland: A simulation approach of possible performance and equity effects," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 394-412, June.
    5. Edward E. Schlee & M. Ali Khan, 2022. "Money Metrics In Applied Welfare Analysis: A Saddlepoint Rehabilitation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(1), pages 189-210, February.
    6. Creedy, John, 2013. "Alternative Distributions for Inequality and Poverty Comparisons," Working Paper Series 18784, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    7. André Decoster & Peter Haan, 2015. "Empirical welfare analysis with preference heterogeneity," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 22(2), pages 224-251, April.
    8. Ugo Colombino & Nizamul Islam, 2021. "Combining microsimulation and optimization to identify optimal universalistic tax-transfer rule," LISER Working Paper Series 2021-06, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    9. John Creedy, 2013. "Alternative Distributions for Inequality and Poverty Comparisons," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/11, New Zealand Treasury.
    10. John Creedy & Norman Gemmell & Nicolas Hérault & Penny Mok, 2020. "A microsimulation analysis of marginal welfare-improving income tax reforms for New Zealand," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(2), pages 409-434, April.
    11. Olivier Bargain & André Decoster & Mathias Dolls & Dirk Neumann & Andreas Peichl & Sebastian Siegloch, 2013. "Welfare, labor supply and heterogeneous preferences: evidence for Europe and the US," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 41(4), pages 789-817, October.
    12. Alan Krause, 2014. "Piecewise Linear Income Tax Reforms," Discussion Papers 14/25, Department of Economics, University of York.
    13. Rolf Aaberge & Ugo Colombino, 2014. "Labour Supply Models," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling, volume 127, pages 167-221, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    14. Alinaghi, Nazila & Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2020. "Designing Direct Tax Reforms: Alternative Approaches," Working Paper Series 9338, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    15. Bosmans, Kristof & Decancq, Koen & Ooghe, Erwin, 2018. "Who's afraid of aggregating money metrics?," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(2), May.
    16. Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman & Hérault, Nicolas & Mok, Penny, 2018. "Microsimulation Analysis of Optimal Income Tax Reforms. An Application to New Zealand," GLO Discussion Paper Series 213, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    17. Alinaghi, Nazila & Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2020. "Designing Direct Tax Reforms: Alternative Approaches," Working Paper Series 21093, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.

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