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Fertility, income inequality, and labour productivity

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  • Ross Guest
  • Robyn Swift

Abstract

There is mounting evidence of a complex system of multi-directional links between fertility, productivity and inequality. The contribution of this study is a multi-country analysis of these three variables as a simultaneous system in a VECM framework using annual time series data for the UK, USA, Australia, Japan, and Sweden. The results highlight some differences between countries in the relationships between the variables. For the UK and Australia, the VECM analysis reveals a long run relationship between fertility and productivity to which both fertility and productivity adjust. This calls into question pro-fertility policies in these countries that aim to offset the costs of population ageing, because an increase in fertility may be associated with lower productivity in the long run. The results for the USA suggest that raising productivity in the long run will be associated with a decrease in both inequality and fertility. No significant long run relationships were found for Japan and Sweden. Copyright 2008 , Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Ross Guest & Robyn Swift, 2008. "Fertility, income inequality, and labour productivity," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 597-618, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:60:y:2008:i:4:p:597-618
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiaoxuan Yang, 2020. "Health expenditure, human capital, and economic growth: an empirical study of developing countries," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 163-176, June.
    2. Mathias Klein, 2015. "Inequality and household debt: a panel cointegration analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(2), pages 391-412, May.
    3. Dierk Herzer & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2013. "Inward and outward FDI and income inequality: evidence from Europe," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(2), pages 395-422, June.
    4. Georgios Mavropoulos & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2021. "On the drivers of the fertility rebound," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 821-845, August.
    5. Noel Gaston & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2009. "The Long‐run Determinants of Australian Income Inequality," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(270), pages 260-275, September.
    6. Ross Guest & Heather Stewart, 2011. "The age dispersion of workers and firm productivity: a survey approach," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 14(1), pages 59-75.
    7. Meltem Ucal & Alfred Albert Haug & Mehmet Hüseyin Bilgin, 2016. "Income inequality and FDI: evidence with Turkish data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(11), pages 1030-1045, March.
    8. Dierk Herzer, 2016. "Unions and Income Inequality: A Heterogeneous Panel Co-integration and Causality Analysis," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 30(3), pages 318-346, September.
    9. Christopoulos, Dimitris & McAdam, Peter, 2017. "Do financial reforms help stabilize inequality?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 45-61.
    10. Robyn Swift, 2011. "The relationship between health and GDP in OECD countries in the very long run," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 306-322, March.
    11. Karel Brůna & Jiří Pour, 2023. "Population aging and structural over/underinvestment," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2339-2383, August.

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