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A State Space Approach to Estimating the Integrated Variance under the Existence of Market Microstructure Noise

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  • Daisuke Nagakura
  • Toshiaki Watanabe

Abstract

This article develops a state space method for estimating the integrated variance under the existence of market microstructure noise (MMN). Our method is based on a state space representation of the noise-contaminated RV (NCRV), namely, the realized variance (RV) calculated with observed prices contaminated by MMNs. The main idea of our method is to filter out the bias component, which we call the microstructure noise (MN) component, from the NCRV using the Kalman filter. We apply the proposed method to yen/dollar exchange rate data. We find that about half of the variation in NCRV is because of the MN component. The proposed method can serve as a convenient way to estimate a general class of continuous-time stochastic volatility models under the existence of MMN.

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  • Daisuke Nagakura & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2015. "A State Space Approach to Estimating the Integrated Variance under the Existence of Market Microstructure Noise," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 45-82.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:13:y:2015:i:1:p:45-82.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jjfinec/nbt015
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    1. Daisuke Nagakura & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2015. "A State Space Approach to Estimating the Integrated Variance under the Existence of Market Microstructure Noise," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 45-82.
    2. Masato Ubukata & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2011. "Pricing Nikkei 225 Options Using Realized Volatility," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-18, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    3. Masato Ubukata & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2013. "Pricing Nikkei 225 Options Using Realized Volatility," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd12-273, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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