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Growth, Inequality and Simulated Poverty Paths for Tanzania, 1992--2002

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  • Gabriel Demombynes
  • Johannes G. Hoogeveen

Abstract

This paper assesses the likely trajectory of poverty rates in Tanzania between 1992 and 2002. To this end, it uses unit-record household survey data from 1992 and 2001 and national accounts growth rates. The projection approach of Datt and Walker (2002) is applied and an extension presented, which is better suited to taking into account distributional changes observed between the two household surveys. The simulations suggest that following increases in poverty during the economic slowdown of the early 1990s, recent growth in Tanzania has brought a decline in poverty, particularly in urban areas. Growth in urban areas will only make a relatively small dent in poverty, and to achieve the 2015 Millennium Development Goal for poverty, Tanzania will need high and accelerated per capita rural growth rates. Copyright 2007 The author 2007. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Centre for the Study of African Economies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.

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  • Gabriel Demombynes & Johannes G. Hoogeveen, 2007. "Growth, Inequality and Simulated Poverty Paths for Tanzania, 1992--2002," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 16(4), pages 596-628, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:16:y:2007:i:4:p:596-628
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jae/ejm002
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    1. Martin Ravallion, 2003. "Measuring Aggregate Welfare in Developing Countries: How Well Do National Accounts and Surveys Agree?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 645-652, August.
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    1. Abdelkrim Araar & Jean‐Yves Duclos & Mathieu Audet & Paul Makdissi, 2009. "Testing For Pro‐Poorness Of Growth, With An Application To Mexico," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(4), pages 853-881, December.
    2. Betti,Gianni & Molini,Vasco & Mori,Lorenzo, 2022. "New Algorithm to Estimate Inequality Measures in Cross-Survey Imputation : An Attemptto Correct the Underestimation of Extreme Values," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10013, The World Bank.
    3. Odozi, John C. & Awoyemi, Timothy T., 2010. "Poverty reduction efforts in Nigeria 1996 – 2004: a micro level analysis of the relative importance of income growth and redistribution," MPRA Paper 36208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Channing Arndt & Lionel Demery & Andy McKay & Finn Tarp, 2015. "Growth and Poverty Reduction in Tanzania," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2015-051, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Kathleen Beegle & Joachim De Weerdt & Stefan Dercon, 2011. "Migration and Economic Mobility in Tanzania: Evidence from a Tracking Survey," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 1010-1033, August.
    6. Channing Arndt & Vincent Leyaro & Kristi Mahrt & Finn Tarp, 2016. "Multidimensional assessment of child welfare for Tanzania," WIDER Working Paper Series 075, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Luc Christiaensen & Joachim Weerdt & Yasuyuki Todo, 2013. "Urbanization and poverty reduction: the role of rural diversification and secondary towns," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(4-5), pages 435-447, July.
    8. Emmanuel Maliti, 2016. "Horizontal inequality in education and wealth in Tanzania: A 20-year perspective," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-114, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Emmanuel Maliti, 2016. "Horizontal inequality in education and wealth in Tanzania: A 20-year perspective," WIDER Working Paper Series 114, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "United Republic of Tanzania: Ex Post Assessment of Longer-Term Program Engagement," IMF Staff Country Reports 2006/198, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Atkinson, Anthony B. & Lugo, Maria Ana, 2010. "Growth, poverty and distribution in Tanzania," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 36376, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Betti, Gianni & Molini, Vasco & Mori, Lorenzo, 2024. "An attempt to correct the underestimation of inequality measures in cross-survey imputation through generalized additive models for location, scale and shape," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    13. Channing Arndt & Lionel Demery & Andrew McKay & Finn Tarp, 2015. "Growth and poverty reduction in Tanzania," WIDER Working Paper Series 051, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Channing Arndt & Vincent Leyaro & Kristi Mahrt & Finn Tarp, 2016. "Multidimensional assessment of child welfare for Tanzania," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-75, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Emmanuel Maliti, 2019. "Inequality in Education and Wealth in Tanzania: A 25-Year Perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 901-921, October.

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