IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/indcch/v28y2019i3p635-656..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Aggregate fluctuations and the distribution of firm growth rates

Author

Listed:
  • Giulio Bottazzi
  • Le Li
  • Angelo Secchi

Abstract

We propose an aggregate growth index that explicitly accounts for fat tails in the firm size distribution and for the negative scaling relation between the size of the firm and the volatility of its growth rates. Using Compustat data on US publicly traded company, we show that the new index tracks aggregate fluctuations much better than simpler measures of central tendency of the dynamics of firms, like the growth rates sample average, confirming that the statistical properties characterizing the micro-economic dynamics of firms are relevant for the dynamics of the aggregate. To better characterize the origins of aggregate fluctuations, we decompose the index in two parts, describing, respectively, the modal (typical) value of log growth rates and the tilt (asymmetry) of their distribution. Regression analysis shows that models based on this decomposition, despite their simplicity, possess a remarkable explanatory and predictive power with respect to the aggregate growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Giulio Bottazzi & Le Li & Angelo Secchi, 2019. "Aggregate fluctuations and the distribution of firm growth rates," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 28(3), pages 635-656.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:indcch:v:28:y:2019:i:3:p:635-656.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/icc/dtz016
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. R?diger Bachmann & Christian Bayer, 2014. "Investment Dispersion and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1392-1416, April.
    2. Vasco Carvalho & Xavier Gabaix, 2013. "The Great Diversification and Its Undoing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1697-1727, August.
    3. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2014. "Firms, Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1303-1340, July.
    4. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    5. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    6. Fu, Dongfeng & Pammolli, Fabio & Buldyrev, Sergey V. & Riccaboni, Massimo & Matia, Kaushik & Yamasaki, Kazuko & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2005. "The Growth of Business Firms: Theoretical Framework and Empirical Evidence," MPRA Paper 15905, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Sean Holly & Ivan Petrella & Emiliano Santoro, 2013. "Aggregate fluctuations and the cross-sectional dynamics of firm growth," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(2), pages 459-479, February.
    8. Imbs, Jean, 2007. "Growth and volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1848-1862, October.
    9. Stephen Hymer & Peter Pashigian, 1962. "Firm Size and Rate of Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(6), pages 556-556.
    10. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1055-1084, September.
    11. Francesca Lotti & Enrico Santarelli & Marco Vivarelli, 2003. "Does Gibrat's Law hold among young, small firms?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 213-235, August.
    12. Bickel, David R. & Fruhwirth, Rudolf, 2006. "On a fast, robust estimator of the mode: Comparisons to other robust estimators with applications," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(12), pages 3500-3530, August.
    13. John Haltiwanger, 1997. "Measuring and analyzing aggregate fluctuations: the importance of building from microeconomic evidence," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 55-78.
    14. Amaral, L.A.N. & Gopikrishnan, P. & Plerou, V. & Stanley, H.E., 2001. "A model for the growth dynamics of economic organizations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 127-136.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Campi, Mercedes & Dueñas, Marco, 2020. "Volatility and economic growth in the twentieth century," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 330-343.
    2. Scharfenaker, Ellis, 2020. "Implications of quantal response statistical equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    3. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Tania Treibich, 2019. "Debunking the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations: from real business cycles back to Keynes," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 67-90, March.
    4. Ellis Scharfenaker, 2022. "Statistical Equilibrium Methods In Analytical Political Economy," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 276-309, April.
    5. Torsten Heinrich & Jangho Yang & Shuanping Dai, 2020. "Levels of structural change: An analysis of China's development push 1998-2014," Papers 2005.01882, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
    6. Torsten Heinrich & Jangho Yang & Shuanping Dai, 2022. "Levels of structural change," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 35-86, January.
    7. David Vidal-Tomás & Alba Ruiz-Buforn & Omar Blanco-Arroyo & Simone Alfarano, 2022. "A Cross-Sectional Analysis of Growth and Profit Rate Distribution: The Spanish Case," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-20, March.
    8. Matteo Barigozzi & Angelo Cuzzola & Marco Grazzi & Daniele Moschella, 2021. "Factoring in the micro: a transaction-level dynamic factor approach to the decomposition of export volatility," LEM Papers Series 2021/22, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Vidal-Tomás & Alba Ruiz-Buforn & Omar Blanco-Arroyo & Simone Alfarano, 2022. "A Cross-Sectional Analysis of Growth and Profit Rate Distribution: The Spanish Case," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Fontanelli, Luca & Guerini, Mattia & Napoletano, Mauro, 2023. "International trade and technological competition in markets with dynamic increasing returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2019. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten's Theorem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1155-1203, July.
    4. Calvino, Flavio & Criscuolo, Chiara & Menon, Carlo & Secchi, Angelo, 2018. "Growth volatility and size: A firm-level study," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 390-407.
    5. Stelios Giannoulakis & Plutarchos Sakellaris, 2023. "Financial crises, firm‐level shocks and large downturns: Evidence from Greece," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1549-1562, April.
    6. Norbert Czinkán, 2017. "The Role of Individual Firms in Aggregate Fluctuations: Evidence from Hungary," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 16(2), pages 40-63.
    7. Jannati, Sima & Korniotis, George & Kumar, Alok, 2020. "Big fish in a small pond: Locally dominant firms and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 219-240.
    8. Baruník, Jozef & Bevilacqua, Mattia & Faff, Robert, 2024. "Dynamic industry uncertainty networks and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    9. Thomas Brenner & Matthias Duschl, 2018. "Modeling Firm and Market Dynamics: A Flexible Model Reproducing Existing Stylized Facts on Firm Growth," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(3), pages 745-772, October.
    10. Gaubert, Cecile & Itskhoki, Oleg & Vogler, Maximilian, 2021. "Government policies in a granular global economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 95-112.
    11. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael S. Schoenle & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 6619, CESifo.
    12. Alex Coad, 2007. "Firm Growth: a Survey," Post-Print halshs-00155762, HAL.
    13. Emmanuel Dhyne & Ayumu Ken Kikkawa & Glenn Magerman, 2022. "Imperfect Competition in Firm-to-Firm Trade," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(5), pages 1933-1970.
    14. Nicholas Apergis & Sayantan Ghosh Dastidar, 2022. "The determinants of aggregate fluctuations: The role of firm‐borrowing channels," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(1), pages 20-34, January.
    15. Brownlees, Christian & Mesters, Geert, 2021. "Detecting granular time series in large panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 544-561.
    16. Kristina Barauskaite & Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, 2021. "Direct and network effects of idiosyncratic TFP shocks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(6), pages 2765-2793, June.
    17. Stefano Costa & Federico Sallusti & Claudio Vicarelli, 2022. "Trade networks and shock transmission capacity: a new taxonomy of Italian industries," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 49(1), pages 133-153, March.
    18. Grigoli, Francesco & Luttini, Emiliano & Sandri, Damiano, 2023. "Idiosyncratic shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an emerging market," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    19. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2014. "Firms, Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1303-1340, July.
    20. Glenn Magerman & Karolien De Bruyne & Emmanuel Dhyne & Jan Van Hove, 2016. "Heterogeneous firms and the micro origins of aggregate fluctuations," Working Paper Research 312, National Bank of Belgium.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:indcch:v:28:y:2019:i:3:p:635-656.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://academic.oup.com/icc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.