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Aggregate fluctuations and the cross-sectional dynamics of firm growth

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  • Sean Holly
  • Ivan Petrella
  • Emiliano Santoro

Abstract

This paper argues that important insights into the business cycle can be obtained by exploring the micro-structure of macroeconomic fluctuations. We fit firm-level growth data with the Asymmetric Exponential Power density, which accounts for asymmetric dispersion and kurtosis on either side of the modal rate. Three novel results are reported. First, firms in the left side of the distribution, that is firms that are growing more slowly or declining, are typically more responsive to aggregate shocks than those in the right side of the distribution. Second, trending behavior in the volatility of firm growth is predominantly driven by increasing dispersion in the growth of highly performing .rms. Last, we deliver evidence in support of the view that shifts in the probability mass on either side of the mode may act as important propagators of business fluctuations. The analysis points to .financial frictions as one of the mechanisms capable of inducing non-linear micro adjustment consistent with both aggregate and cross-sectional dynamics.
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Suggested Citation

  • Sean Holly & Ivan Petrella & Emiliano Santoro, 2013. "Aggregate fluctuations and the cross-sectional dynamics of firm growth," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(2), pages 459-479, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:176:y:2013:i:2:p:459-479
    DOI: j.1467-985X.2012.01047.x
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2012.01047.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Distante, Roberta & Petrella, Ivan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2013. "Asymmetry Reversals and the Business Cycle," Economy and Society 151531, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    2. Tata Subba Rao & Granville Tunnicliffe Wilson & Andrew Harvey & Rutger-Jan Lange, 2017. "Volatility Modeling with a Generalized t Distribution," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 175-190, March.
    3. Giulio Bottazzi & Le Li & Angelo Secchi, 2019. "Aggregate fluctuations and the distribution of firm growth rates," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 28(3), pages 635-656.
    4. Lafond, François & Farmer, J. Doyne & Koutroumpis, Pantelis & Winkler, Julian & Heinrich, Torsten & Yang, Jangho, 2019. "Measuring productivity dispersion: a parametric approach using the Lévy alpha-stable distribution," INET Oxford Working Papers 2019-14, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    5. Vitezić Vanja & Srhoj Stjepan & Perić Marko, 2018. "Investigating Industry Dynamics in a Recessionary Transition Economy," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 13(1), pages 43-67, June.
    6. Alex Coad, 2022. "Lumps, Bumps and Jumps in the Firm Growth Process," Foundations and Trends(R) in Entrepreneurship, now publishers, vol. 18(4), pages 212-267, April.
    7. Åstebro, Thomas & Tåg, Joacim, 2015. "Jobs Incorporated: Incorporation Status and Job Creation," Working Paper Series 1059, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    8. Olubunmi Ipinnaiye & Declan Dineen & Helena Lenihan, 2017. "Drivers of SME performance: a holistic and multivariate approach," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 883-911, April.
    9. Halvarsson, Daniel, 2013. "Identifying High-Growth Firms," Ratio Working Papers 215, The Ratio Institute.
    10. Asquith, William H., 2014. "Parameter estimation for the 4-parameter Asymmetric Exponential Power distribution by the method of L-moments using R," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 955-970.
    11. David Vidal-Tomás & Alba Ruiz-Buforn & Omar Blanco-Arroyo & Simone Alfarano, 2022. "A Cross-Sectional Analysis of Growth and Profit Rate Distribution: The Spanish Case," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-20, March.
    12. Halvarsson, Daniel, 2019. "Asymmetric Double Pareto Distributions: Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Application to the Growth Rate Distribution of Firms," Ratio Working Papers 327, The Ratio Institute.
    13. Doina I. POPESCU & Sebastian - Ion CEPTUREANU & Eduard - Gabriel CEPTUREANU, 2017. "PECULIARITIES OF STRATEGY IN SMEs," Proceedings of the INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 11(1), pages 617-632, November.
    14. repec:wrk:wrkemf:16 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Distante, Roberta & Petrella, Ivan & Santoro, Emiliano, 2018. "Gibrat’s law and quantile regressions: An application to firm growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 5-9.
    16. Olubunmi Ipinnaiye & Declan Dineen & Helena Lenihan, 2016. "Analysing the Drivers of Services Firm Performance: Evidence for Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(2), pages 213-245.

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