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Idiosyncratic shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an emerging market

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  • Grigoli, Francesco
  • Luttini, Emiliano
  • Sandri, Damiano

Abstract

This paper provides the first assessment of the contribution of idiosyncratic shocks to aggregate fluctuations in an emerging market using confidential data on the universe of Chilean firms. We find that idiosyncratic shocks account for more than 40 percent of the volatility of aggregate sales. Although quite large, this contribution is smaller than documented in previous studies based on advanced economies, despite a higher degree of market concentration in Chile. We show that this finding is explained by larger firms being less volatile and by weaker propagation effects across Chilean firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Grigoli, Francesco & Luttini, Emiliano & Sandri, Damiano, 2023. "Idiosyncratic shocks and aggregate fluctuations in an emerging market," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:160:y:2023:i:c:s0304387822000955
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102949
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    1. Lafond, François & Astudillo-Estévez, Pablo & Bacilieri, Andrea & Borsos, András, 2023. "Firm-level production networks: what do we (really) know?," INET Oxford Working Papers 2023-08, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle; Emerging markets; Firm-level shocks; Granularity; Propagation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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