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The economic analysis of lotteries

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  • Ian Walker

Abstract

Summary Lotteries Determinants of ticket sales and the optimal payout rateThis paper considers policy issues arising in the design, regulation and taxation of lotteries, focusing on the market for an on-line lottery game. Demand determines who buys lottery tickets and in what quantities. The design of lotteries affects the terms on which tickets are supplied.UK data suggest that its lottery may be priced too high to maximize lottery revenue – more revenue might be raised if the proportion of sales allocated to tax and other levies were smaller.Having established the positive economics of lotteries, the paper then assesses their welfare implications. Pari-mutuel lotteries enjoy scale economies and, as natural monopolies, are invariably run either by government agencies or a regulated licensee. I estimate consumer surplus and identify the excess burden that arises from existing (over)taxation of lotteries. The large price elasticity of demand implies that revenue raised from the lottery is raised very inefficiently. Moreover, the demand for lottery tickets is inferior (and there is some evidence that such games are contagious and addictive). So using lotteries as a vehicle for raising revenue is extremely regressive.Finally, I consider other policy implications: induced effects on charitable giving and on other forms of gambling; the impact on the government budget; perceptions of risk; and distributional considerations.—Ian Walker

Suggested Citation

  • Ian Walker, 1998. "The economic analysis of lotteries," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(27), pages 358-401.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecpoli:v:13:y:1998:i:27:p:358-401.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/1468-0327.00036
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    Cited by:

    1. Hartley, Roger & Lanot, Gauthier, 2006. "Heterogeneous demand responses to discrete price changes: an application to the purchase of lottery tickets," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 859-877, February.
    2. S. Capacci & E. Randon & A. E. Scorcu, 2014. "Luck vs Skill in Gambling over the Recession. Evidence from Italy," Working Papers wp918, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    3. Kam Yu, 2009. "Measuring the Output and Prices of the Lottery Sector: An Application of Implicit Expected Utility Theory," NBER Chapters, in: Price Index Concepts and Measurement, pages 405-425, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jen-Hung Wang & Larry Tzeng & Junji Tien, 2006. "Willingness to pay and the demand for lotto," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1207-1216.
    5. Haucap, Justus, 2021. "Glücksspielregulierung aus ordnungsökonomischer Perspektive," DICE Ordnungspolitische Perspektiven 110, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    6. Humphreys, Brad & Perez, Levi, 2011. "Lottery Participants and Revenues: An International Survey of Economic Research on Lotteries," Working Papers 2011-17, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    7. Orrin David Gulley, 2018. "The optimal structure of lotto games," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 7(4), pages 156-161.
    8. Ursula Hauser‐Rethaller & Ulrich König, 2002. "Parimutuel Lotteries: Gamblers' Behavior and the Demand for Tickets," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(2), pages 223-245, May.
    9. M. Forster & E. Randon, 2019. "Do lottery operators exploit their lottery power? Efficiency and equality considerations in optimal lottery design," Working Papers wp1135, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    10. Beenstock, Michael & Haitovsky, Yoel, 2001. "Lottomania and other anomalies in the market for lotto," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 721-744, December.
    11. Gabrielyan, Gnel & Just, David R., 2017. "Economic Factors Affecting Lottery Sales: An Examination of Maine State Lottery Sales," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258419, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Brian A. Polin & Eyal Ben Isaac & Itzhak Aharon, 2021. "Patterns in manually selected numbers in the Israeli lottery," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 16(4), pages 1039-1059, July.
    13. Chen, Shu-Heng & Chie, Bin-Tzong, 2008. "Lottery markets design, micro-structure, and macro-behavior: An ACE approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 463-480, August.
    14. Martijn J. Burger & Martijn Hendriks & Emma Pleeging & Jan C. Ours, 2020. "The joy of lottery play: evidence from a field experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 23(4), pages 1235-1256, December.
    15. Beenstock, Michael & Goldin, Ephraim & Haitovsky, Yoel, 2000. "What jackpot? The optimal lottery tax," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 655-671, November.
    16. Ian Walker & Rhys Wheeler, 2018. "The Decline and Fall of UK Lotto," Working Papers 247054751, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    17. Kent Grote & Victor Matheson, 2011. "The Economics of Lotteries: An Annotated Bibliography," Working Papers 1110, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    18. Gere, István & Kelemen, Szabolcs & Néda, Zoltán & Biró, Tamás S., 2024. "Jackpot statistics, a physicist’s approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 637(C).
    19. Jaume García & Plácido Rodríguez, 2007. "The Demand for Football Pools in Spain," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 8(4), pages 335-354, August.
    20. repec:cup:judgdm:v:16:y:2021:i:4:p:1039-1059 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Brad Humphreys & Levi Perez, 2012. "Network externalities in consumer spending on lottery games: evidence from Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 929-945, June.
    22. Patrick Feehan & David Forrest, 2007. "Distribution of UK National Lottery grants across local authority areas," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 361-365.
    23. Walther Herbert, 2005. "Optimal Taxation of Gambling and Lotto," Working Papers geewp47, Vienna University of Economics and Business Research Group: Growth and Employment in Europe: Sustainability and Competitiveness.

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