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Can External Threats Foster a European Union Identity? Evidence from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

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  • Kai Gehring

Abstract

Can external threats strengthen group identity? A growing body of research in economics emphasises the importance of cultural attributes such as identity for trust and cooperation. However, where these attributes come from is not well understood. This paper examines reactions to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014, looking at European Union member states. Comparing low-threat to high-threat states in a difference-in-differences design, I find a sizeable and persistent positive effect on EU identity. It is associated with higher trust in EU institutions and support for common policies. Lower-level identities remain unaffected, and proximity to Russia and Russian minority size are driving high-threat status.

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  • Kai Gehring, 2022. "Can External Threats Foster a European Union Identity? Evidence from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(644), pages 1489-1516.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:132:y:2022:i:644:p:1489-1516.
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    2. Jerg Gutmann & Hans Pitlik & Andrea Fronaschütz, 2023. "Has the Russian invasion of Ukraine reinforced anti-globalization sentiment in Austria?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 289-299, May.
    3. Nils D. Steiner & Ruxanda Berlinschi & Etienne Farvaque & Jan Fidrmuc & Philipp Harms & Alexander Mihailov & Michael Neugart & Piotr Stanek, 2023. "Rallying around the EU flag: Russia's invasion of Ukraine and attitudes toward European integration," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 283-301, March.
    4. Anger, Silke & Christoph, Bernhard & Galkiewicz, Agata & Margaryan, Shushanik & Peter, Frauke & Sandner, Malte & Siedler, Thomas, 2024. "War, international spillovers, and adolescents: Evidence from Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 181-193.
    5. Beetsma, Roel & Burgoon, Brian & Nicoli, Francesco, 2023. "Is european attachment sufficiently strong to support an EU fiscal capacity: Evidence from a conjoint experiment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Giuliano, Paola & Spilimbergo, Antonio, 2024. "Aggregate Shocks and the Formation of Preferences and Beliefs," IZA Discussion Papers 17110, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Kersting, Felix & Wolf, Nikolaus, 2024. "On the origins of national identity. German nation-building after Napoleon," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 463-477.
    8. Kai Gehring & Joop Age Harm Adema & Panu Poutvaara, 2022. "Immigrant Narratives," CESifo Working Paper Series 10026, CESifo.
    9. Nils Steiner & Ruxanda Berlinschi & Etienne Farvaque & Jan Fidrmuc & Philipp Harms & Alexander Mihailov & Michael Neugart & Piotr Stanek, 2022. "Rallying around the EU Flag: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine and Attitudes toward European Integration," CESifo Working Paper Series 9883, CESifo.
    10. Gleue, Marvin & Harrs, Sören & Feldhaus, Christoph & Löschel, Andreas, 2024. "Identity and voluntary efforts for climate protection," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 436-476.
    11. Monika Bauhr & Nicholas Charron, 2024. "Europe around the corner? How border proximity and quality of government explains European identity," European Union Politics, , vol. 25(2), pages 376-395, June.

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