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Valuing Petroleum Reserves Using Current Net Price

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  • Davis, Graham A
  • Cairns, Robert D

Abstract

Merton H. Miller and Charles W. Upton propose the 'Hotelling Valuation Principle': producing mineral reserves can be valued by multiplying the mineral's current net price by the reserve estimate. M. A. Adelman argues that, by omitting production constraints, the Hotelling value provides an upper bound on oil reserve value. Others claim oil reserves are options on oil, with the Hotelling value being a lower bound on their value. In an optimizing model of oil production, the authors incorporate uncertainty and production constraints and find that the Hotelling value is a theoretical upper bound on value. They also find that a modified net price rule approximates reserve value. Copyright 1999 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Davis, Graham A & Cairns, Robert D, 1999. "Valuing Petroleum Reserves Using Current Net Price," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(2), pages 295-311, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:37:y:1999:i:2:p:295-311
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    Cited by:

    1. Mu, Xiaoyi, 2024. "Have the Chinese national oil companies paid too much in overseas asset acquisitions?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    2. Leach, Andrew & Mason, Charles F. & Veld, Klaas van ‘t, 2011. "Co-optimization of enhanced oil recovery and carbon sequestration," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 893-912.
    3. John Livernois & Henry Thille & Xianqiang Zhang, 2006. "A test of the Hotelling rule using old‐growth timber data," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 163-186, February.
    4. Mardones, Cristian & del Rio, Ricardo, 2019. "Correction of Chilean GDP for natural capital depreciation and environmental degradation caused by copper mining," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 143-152.
    5. Davis, Graham A. & Cairns, Robert D., 2012. "Good timing: The economics of optimal stopping," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 255-265.
    6. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2008. "Inconsistency between a criterion and the initial conditions," MPRA Paper 6792, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2007. "Switching to a sustainable efficient extraction path," MPRA Paper 2976, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Bazhanov, Andrei V., 2010. "Sustainable growth: Compatibility between a plausible growth criterion and the initial state," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 116-125, June.
    9. James L. Smith, 2015. "Valuing Barrels of Oil Equivalent," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Adelman S).
    10. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2008. "Sustainable growth in a resource-based economy: the extraction-saving relationship," MPRA Paper 12350, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Gao, Shen & van ’t Veld, Klaas, 2021. "Pegging input prices to output prices—A special price adjustment clause in long-term CO2 sales contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    12. Davis, Graham A., 2001. "The Credibility of a Threat to Nationalize," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 119-139, September.
    13. Tom Huppertz & Bo P. Weidema & Simon Standaert & Bernard De Caevel & Elisabeth van Overbeke, 2019. "The Social Cost of Sub-Soil Resource Use," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, January.
    14. Cairns, Robert D., 2014. "The green paradox of the economics of exhaustible resources," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 78-85.
    15. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2008. "Sustainable growth: The extraction-saving relationship," MPRA Paper 9911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Timothy Fitzgerald & Kevin Hassett & Cody Kallen & Casey B. Mulligan, 2020. "An Analysis of Vice President Biden's Economic Agenda: The Long Run Impacts of its Regulation, Taxes, and Spending," Working Papers 2020-157, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    17. Bazhanov, Andrei, 2008. "Sustainable growth: Compatibility between criterion and the initial state," MPRA Paper 9914, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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