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Criminal Deterrence in the Reduced Form: A New Perspective on Ehrlich's Seminal Study

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  • Andreoni, James

Abstract

Ehrlich (1973) is perhaps the best-known and most influential study of criminal deterrence. Isaac Ehrlich's structural estimation of a three-equation simultaneous system found large and significant direct deterrent effects of penalties on crime rates. However, recent theoretical results show that higher penalties may indirectly increase crime rates by reducing the probability of conviction. Hence, a reduced-form model is needed to learn the total effect of penalties on crime rates. Using such a model, the author finds that the marginal deterrent effects reported by Ehrlich vanish. This result generates much different policy implications than those widely adopted following Ehrlich's publication. Copyright 1995 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreoni, James, 1995. "Criminal Deterrence in the Reduced Form: A New Perspective on Ehrlich's Seminal Study," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(3), pages 476-483, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:33:y:1995:i:3:p:476-83
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    Cited by:

    1. Fluet, Claude, 2020. "L'économie de la preuve judiciaire," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 96(4), pages 585-620, Décembre.
    2. Ana María Cerro & Osvaldo Meloni, 2000. "Determinants of the crime rate in Argentina during the '90s," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 27(2 Year 20), pages 297-311, December.
    3. Ronald Wintrobe, 2006. "Extremism, Suicide Terror, and Authoritarism," ICER Working Papers 8-2006, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    4. Paul R. Zimmerman, 2004. "State executions, deterrence, and the incidence of murder," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 7, pages 163-193, May.
    5. repec:eee:labchp:v:3:y:1999:i:pc:p:3529-3571 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Luigi Mittone, 2003. "Ethical altruism and redistribution: an experimental approach," CEEL Working Papers 0301, Cognitive and Experimental Economics Laboratory, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    7. Ronald Wintrobe, 2006. "Extremism, suicide terror, and authoritarianism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 169-195, July.
    8. Paul R. Zimmerman, 2010. "The Economics of Capital Punishment and Deterrence," Chapters, in: Bruce L. Benson & Paul R. Zimmerman (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Crime, chapter 16, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Zimmerman, Paul R., 2004. "State executions, deterrence, and the incidence of murder," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, May.
    10. Joanna M. Shepherd, 2004. "Murders of Passion, Execution Delays, and the Deterrence of Capital Punishment," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(2), pages 283-321, June.

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