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Demography and income in the 21st century: a long-run perspective

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Listed:
  • Steven Brakman
  • Tristan Kohl
  • Charles van Marrewijk

Abstract

The world faces massive demographic changes in the 21st century. We analyse the impact of changes in the share of the working-age population for the global income distribution. First, the historical impact of demography on economic growth indicates that a 1% higher share of the working-age population in the total population results in a 0.173 percentage points higher income growth rate. Second, we use United Nations population projections to predict income changes for the remainder of this century. Third, we show how the share of income shifts away from Europe, North America and China towards South Asia and Africa, such that the current global economic powers will see their influence on world affairs decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Brakman & Tristan Kohl & Charles van Marrewijk, 2025. "Demography and income in the 21st century: a long-run perspective," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 18(1), pages 25-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cjrecs:v:18:y:2025:i:1:p:25-40.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cjres/rsae040
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demographic change; population distribution; age distribution; income predictions; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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