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Robustness procedures in economic growth regression models

Author

Listed:
  • Dennis S. Mapa

    (University of the Philippines School of Statistics)

  • Kristine Joy S. Briones

    (University of the Philippines School of Economics)

Abstract

A central question for empirical economics, particularly economic growth, is which explanatory variables to include and exclude in the regressions. This paper aims to identify variables strongly correlated with provincial income growth in the Philippines by applying robustness procedures in determining which variables are strongly correlated with income growth. The extreme bound analysis and the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates were applied to 15 determinants of income growth from a data set consisting of 74 Philippine provinces for the period 1985-2003 to test which among the explanatory variables are strongly correlated to growth. The tests show that among the 15 variables, five variables stand out as being robust. The log of initial income, the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) indicator, the expenditure Gini and its square, and the proportion of young dependents are all considered as strongly correlated to growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis S. Mapa & Kristine Joy S. Briones, 2007. "Robustness procedures in economic growth regression models," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 44(2), pages 71-84, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:44:y:2007:i:2:p:71-84
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    File URL: http://pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/index.php/pre/article/view/228/625
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David E. BLOOM & Jocelyn E. FINLAY, 2009. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 45-64, June.
    2. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
    3. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
    4. Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I Just Ran Four Million Regressions," NBER Working Papers 6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    6. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mapa, Dennis S. & Balisacan, Arsenio & Briones, Kristine Joy S. & Albis, Manuel Leonard F., 2009. "What really matters for income growth in the Philippines: Empirical evidence from provincial data," MPRA Paper 19449, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    robust; extreme bound analysis; Bayesian averaging of classical estimates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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