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The Belt and Road Initiative’s effect on supply-chain trade: evidence from structural gravity equations

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  • Tristan Kohl

Abstract

This article considers the effect of China’s Belt and Road Initiative on supply-chain trade for 64 economies in the period 2002–2011. We employ a structural gravity equation to estimate the impact of trade-cost reducing measures—notably infrastructural improvements and the creation of free trade agreements—on supply-chain trade and welfare in general equilibrium. We find that infrastructural investments will yield asymmetric benefits to China, Russia and Southeast Asian countries stemming from greater European market access. Our results also suggest that China’s alternatives to foster (inter)regional economic growth through the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the Trans-Pacific Partnership offer much less attractive economic prospects.

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  • Tristan Kohl, 2019. "The Belt and Road Initiative’s effect on supply-chain trade: evidence from structural gravity equations," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 12(1), pages 77-104.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cjrecs:v:12:y:2019:i:1:p:77-104.
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    6. Peter R. Herman, 2022. "Modeling complex network patterns in international trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(1), pages 127-179, February.
    7. Cai, Guowei & Zhang, Xuejiao & Yang, Hao, 2023. "Capacity utilization shifting or resource-seeking? Benefits for Chinese enterprises participating in the belt and road initiative," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
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    9. Hongxing Cao & Huirong Zhan & Yuan Wang & Ziyao Wei, 2021. "Sino-Bulgarian Economic Relations in the Post Pandemic World," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 2, pages 177-196, July.
    10. Yuxin Lu & Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz, 2020. "The Impact Of China'S One-Belt One-Road Initiative On International Trade And Global Value Chains," GUT FME Working Paper Series A 62, Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology.
    11. Jianhong Qi & Kam Ki Tang & Da Yin & Yong Zhao, 2020. "Remaking China’s Global Image with the Belt and Road Initiative: Is the Jury Out?," Discussion Papers Series 635, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    12. Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Tristan Kohl, 2023. "EXITitis in the UK: Gravity Estimates in the Aftermath of Brexit," De Economist, Springer, vol. 171(2), pages 185-206, June.
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    15. Sidong Zhao & Yiran Yan & Jing Han, 2021. "Industrial Land Change in Chinese Silk Road Cities and Its Influence on Environments," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-30, July.
    16. Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz & Yuxin Lu, 2022. "The role of the One-Belt One-Road initiative in China’s exports and global value chains," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(2), pages 317-341, June.
    17. Yanfeng Liu & Xue Li & Xiaonan Zhu & Min-Kyu Lee & Po-Lin Lai, 2023. "The theoretical systems of OFDI location determinants in global north and global south economies," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-13, December.
    18. Koffi Dumor & Yao Li & Ma Yongkai & Enock Mintah Ampaw & Hafez Komla Dumor, 2022. "Evaluating the belt and road initiative effects on trade and migration: Evidence from the East African community," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(1), pages 16-28, March.
    19. Lu, Yuxin & Sica, Edgardo & Wolszczak-Derlacz, Joanna, 2024. "Global value chains, wages, employment and labour production in China: A regional approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 124-142.
    20. Jeffrey B. Nugent & Jiaxuan Lu, 2020. "Does the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce Align Private Firms with the Goals of the People's Republic of China's Belt and Road Initiative?," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 37(2), pages 45-76, September.
    21. Koffi Dumor & Li Yao & Jean-Paul Ainam & Edem Koffi Amouzou & Williams Ayivi, 2021. "Quantitative Dynamics Effects of Belt and Road Economies Trade Using Structural Gravity and Neural Networks," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, July.

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