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How Do Biofuel Use Mandates Cause Uncertainty? United States Environmental Protection Agency Cellulosic Waiver Options

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  • Seth Meyer
  • Wyatt Thompson

Abstract

Biofuel policy in the United States sets minimum use mandates for different biofuels, but the cellulosic mandate, introduced in 2010 has been waived and reduced to nearly zero since then. This waiver has shifted the burden of compliance to other biofuels, but other options exist. We examine some alternatives using a structural model of biofuel, agricultural, and mandate markets. Our estimates show that crop price levels, crop and livestock farm income, compliance costs, and greenhouse gas emissions are all sensitive to whether and how the cellulosic mandate is waived. Mandate analysis that does not consider Environmental Protection Agency implementation, or waiver analysis that disregards the hierarchical nature of the mandates could be misleading. Copyright 2012, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Seth Meyer & Wyatt Thompson, 2012. "How Do Biofuel Use Mandates Cause Uncertainty? United States Environmental Protection Agency Cellulosic Waiver Options," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 34(4), pages 570-586.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:apecpp:v:34:y:2012:i:4:p:570-586
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ha, Sang su & Welch, J. Mark & Anderson, David P., 2016. "Time Varying Correlation Research Among Corn, Ethanol, And Gasoline: Copula –Garch Approach," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252741, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    2. Markel, Evan & Sims, Charles & English, Burton C., 2018. "Policy uncertainty and the optimal investment decisions of second-generation biofuel producers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 89-100.
    3. Condon, Nicole & Klemick, Heather & Wolverton, Ann, 2015. "Impacts of ethanol policy on corn prices: A review and meta-analysis of recent evidence," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 63-73.
    4. Dumortier, Jerome & Kauffman, Nathan & Hayes, Dermot J., 2015. "Uncertainty and Time-to-Build in Bioenergy Crop Production," ISU General Staff Papers 201501010800001019, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Debnath, Deepayan & Whistance, Jarrett & Thompson, Wyatt, 2017. "The causes of two-way U.S.–Brazil ethanol trade and the consequences for greenhouse gas emission," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2045-2053.
    6. Dumortier, Jerome & Kauffman, Nathan & Hayes, Dermot J., 2017. "Production and spatial distribution of switchgrass and miscanthus in the United States under uncertainty and sunk cost," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 300-314.
    7. Johansson, R. & Meyer, S. & Whistance, J. & Thompson, W. & Debnath, D., 2020. "Greenhouse gas emission reduction and cost from the United States biofuels mandate," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    8. Mason, Charles F. & Wilmot, Neil A., 2016. "Price discontinuities in the market for RINs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PB), pages 79-97.
    9. Thompson, Wyatt & Johansson, Robert & Meyer, Seth & Whistance, Jarrett, 2018. "The US biofuel mandate as a substitute for carbon cap-and-trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 368-375.
    10. Aguilar, Francisco X. & Cai, Zhen & Mohebalian, Phillip & Thompson, Wyatt, 2015. "Exploring the drivers' side of the “blend wall”: U.S. consumer preferences for ethanol blend fuels," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 217-226.
    11. Jason P. H. Jones & Zidong M. Wang & Bruce A. McCarl & Minglu Wang, 2017. "Policy Uncertainty and the US Ethanol Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-14, November.
    12. Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid & Jerome Dumortier & Ryan Goodrich, 2020. "Incorporating Sub‐National Brazilian Agricultural Production and Land‐Use into U.S. Biofuel Policy Evaluation," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(3), pages 497-523, September.
    13. Debnath, Deepayan & Whistance, Jarrett & Thompson, Wyatt & Binfield, Julian, 2017. "Complement or substitute: Ethanol’s uncertain relationship with gasoline under alternative petroleum price and policy scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 385-397.
    14. Dumortier, Jerome, 2015. "Impact of agronomic uncertainty in biomass production and endogenous commodity prices on cellulosic biofuel feedstock composition," IU SPEA AgEcon Papers 198707, Indiana University, IU School of Public and Environmental Affairs.
    15. Dumortier, Jerome, 2014. "Impact of different bioenergy crop yield estimates on the cellulosic ethanol feedstock mix," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 171168, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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