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A Simulation Model for Evaluating Worldwide Buffer Stocks of Wheat

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  • Shlomo Reutlinger

Abstract

Stochastic simulation is advocated for quantifying the impact of alternative buffer stock levels and storage policies on stabilizing world wheat supplies and for estimating the corresponding benefits and losses to the world economy, to the storage operation itself, to consumers, and to producers. Illustrative runs of the model show that stock levels which are optimal in terms of direct costs and benefits are likely to be too low to afford satisfactory levels of stabilization. However, buffer stock programs operated with insurance-oriented storage rules could provide satisfactory protection against extreme shortfalls in grain supplies at a reasonably low cost.

Suggested Citation

  • Shlomo Reutlinger, 1976. "A Simulation Model for Evaluating Worldwide Buffer Stocks of Wheat," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 58(1), pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:58:y:1976:i:1:p:1-12.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1238571
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Labys, Walter C., 1988. "Recent developments in commodity modeling : a World Bankfocus," Policy Research Working Paper Series 119, The World Bank.
    2. Makki, Shiva S. & Tweeten, Luther G. & Miranda, Mario J., 2001. "Storage-trade interactions under uncertainty: Implications for food security," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 127-140, February.
    3. van der Merwe, G. P., 1990. "Research Note: Organised Futures Trading," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 29(1), February.
    4. Anderson, Jock R., 1979. "Impacts of Climatic Variability in Australian Agriculture: A Review," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(03), pages 1-31, December.
    5. Helmberger, Peter G. & Campbell, Gerald R. & Dobson, William D., 1981. "PART IV. Organization and Performance of Agricultural Markets," AAEA Monographs, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, number 337229, january.
    6. Buccola, Steven T. & Sukume, Chrispen, 1987. "Pricing And Storage Decisions In Government Grain Marketing Boards," 1987 Annual Meeting, August 2-5, East Lansing, Michigan 269978, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    7. Kennedy, John O.S., 1981. "World Grains: Evaluating the Use of Buffer Stocks for Reducing the Impact of Yield Variability of Four Grains," 1981 Occasional Paper Series No. 2 197138, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Walter C. Labys, 1980. "Commodity Models and Their Potential for Latin American Planning," NBER Chapters, in: Commodity Markets and Latin American Development: A Modeling Approach, pages 9-40, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kennedy, John O.S., 1979. "Optimal Buffer Stock Policies For Wheat At The World Level," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 23(3), pages 1-13, December.
    10. John C. Quiggin & Jock R. Anderson, 1981. "Price Bands and Buffer Funds," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 57(1), pages 67-73, March.
    11. Taylor, C. Robert & Lacewell, Ronald D., 1977. "Boll Weevil Control Strategies: Regional Benefits And Costs," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 9(1), pages 1-7, July.
    12. Smyth, Donald Craig, 1985. "Economic impacts of the Farmer-Owned Reserve program on the U.S. corn-livestock sector," ISU General Staff Papers 1985010108000013104, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.

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