IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/onb/oenbmp/y2021iq2-21b4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic recovery aided by coronavirus vaccine rollout. Economic outlook for Austria from 2021 to 2023 (June 2021)

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Ragacs

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Analysis Division)

  • Richard Sellner

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB))

  • Klaus Vondra

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Analysis Division)

Abstract

The easing of containment measures in view of accelerated COVID-19 vaccination rates have put the Austrian economy back on the road to a strong recovery in mid-2021. In 2020, containment measures had caused real GDP to contract by 6.7% year on year. Looking ahead, the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) expects annual GDP growth to bounce back to 3.9% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022, and to return to a normal growth rate of 1.9% in 2023. Amid the catch-up process in 2021 and 2022, industrial production, goods exports and investment are projected to expand in Austria on account of strong global demand. The key drivers of global demand will be the US economy, which is being powered by massive fiscal stimuli, and the robust global industrial production cycle. Exports from Austria are forecast to increase by 7.1% in 2021, by 6.4% in 2022 and by 3.4% in 2023. Gross capital formation is expected to recover sharply in 2021 (+4.7%). Thereafter, investment growth should go down to 3.3% (2022) and 1.8% (2023) as the investment cycle slows down. Private consumption, which slumped by 9.4% in 2020, is projected to recover fast with 4% growth in 2021 and 5.8% in 2022. This means that private consumption will exceed pre-crisis levels already in the first half of 2022, before slowing down in 2023 (+1.8%). Consumption growth will be driven substantially by dissaving, as the saving ratio is forecast to drop from its peak of 14.4% in 2020 to below 8% in 2023. Amid the economic recovery, the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.6% in 2023, from 5.2% in 2021. HICP inflation is projected to rise to 2.0% in 2021, driven by rising commodity prices, and to decelerate to 1.8% in both 2022 and 2023. The general government deficit is projected to improve to 6.9% of GDP (following 8.9% in 2020) and to drop to around 2% of GDP by 2023. The debt ratio, which rose from 83.9% to 85.1% of GDP in 2021, is forecast to start shrinking from 2022 and to amount to close to 82% of GDP in 2023.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Ragacs & Richard Sellner & Klaus Vondra, 2021. "Economic recovery aided by coronavirus vaccine rollout. Economic outlook for Austria from 2021 to 2023 (June 2021)," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2/21, pages 81-115.
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbmp:y:2021:i:q2/21:b:4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:d1178846-e0eb-420e-bb5c-2840c7f77b31/06_mop_Q2_21_Outlook_Economic-recovery.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dossche, Maarten & Zlatanos, Stylianos, 2020. "COVID-19 and the increase in household savings: precautionary or forced?," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 6.
    2. Ulrike Huemer & Marion Kogler & Helmut Mahringer, 2021. "Kurzarbeit als Kriseninstrument in der COVID-19-Pandemie. Kurzexpertise zum Vergleich der Modelle ausgewählter europäischer Länder," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67020, January.
    3. de Bondt, Gabe & Gieseck, Arne & Herrero, Pablo & Zekaite, Zivile, 2019. "Disaggregate income and wealth effects in the largest euro area countries," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Martin Beraja & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Demand Composition and the Strength of Recoveries," NBER Working Papers 29304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. David Dam & Davide Melcangi & Laura Pilossoph & Will Schirmer, 2021. "Who’s Ready to Spend? Constrained Consumption across the Income Distribution," Liberty Street Economics 20210513b, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Nicolas Albacete & Peter Lindner, 2017. "How strong is the wealth channel of monetary policy transmission? A microeconometric evaluation for Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2/17, pages 32-53.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Haertel, Thomas & Hamburg, Britta & Kusin, Vladimir, 2022. "The macroeconometric model of the Bundesbank revisited," Technical Papers 01/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Elisa Guglielminetti & Concetta Rondinelli, 2021. "Consumption and saving patterns in Italy during Covid-19," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 620, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Martin Schneider & Richard Sellner, 2022. "Private consumption and savings during the COVID-19 pandemic in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q4/21, pages 43-59.
    4. Ana del Río & José Antonio Cuenca, 2020. "Euro area household income and saving during the first wave of the pandemic," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 4/2020.
    5. Jung, Haeil & Kim, Jun Hyung & Hong, Gihyeon, 2023. "Impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on single-person households in South Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    6. Mariella Nenova, 2022. "Households’ Consumption Pattern and Saving – Evidence for the First Year of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 6, pages 3-22.
    7. Hodbod, Alexander & Hommes, Cars & Huber, Stefanie J. & Salle, Isabelle, 2021. "The COVID-19 consumption game-changer: Evidence from a large-scale multi-country survey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. Belke Ansgar & Dreger Christian, 2019. "Did Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound Affect Lending of Commercial Banks? Evidence for the Euro Area," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(5-6), pages 841-860, October.
    9. Cardi, Olivier & Restout, Romain, 2023. "Sectoral fiscal multipliers and technology in open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    10. Bambi, Mauro & Ghilli, Daria & Gozzi, Fausto & Leocata, Marta, 2024. "Habits and demand changes after COVID-19," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    11. Francesco Berardini & Fabrizio Renzi, 2022. "Mind the Gap! The (unexpected) impact of COVID-19 pandemic on VAT revenue in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 669, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Luc Meunier & Sima Ohadi, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on Individuals' Risk and Time Preferences," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1050-1069.
    13. Doris Prammer, 2021. "Unprecedented fiscal (re)actions to ease the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q4/20-Q1/, pages 153-173.
    14. Ana Lucia Luis & Natalia Teixeira & Rui Braz, 2023. "Portuguese Households Savings in Times of Pandemic: A Way to Better Resist the Escalating Inflation?," Papers 2304.02573, arXiv.org.
    15. Antolín-Díaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2024. "Advances in nowcasting economic activity: The role of heterogeneous dynamics and fat tails," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    16. Fegatelli, Paolo, 2022. "A central bank digital currency in a heterogeneous monetary union: Managing the effects on the bank lending channel," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    17. Yener Coskun & Burak Sencer Atasoy & Giacomo Morri & Esra Alp, 2018. "Wealth Effects on Household Final Consumption: Stock and Housing Market Channels," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-32, June.
    18. Gropp, Reint & McShane, William, 2021. "Why are households saving so much during the corona recession?," IWH Policy Notes 1/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    19. Dimitris Anastasiou & Panayotis Kapopoulos & Kalliopi-Maria Zekente, 2023. "Sentimental Shocks and House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 627-655, November.
    20. Evangelos Charalambakis & Federica Teppa & Athanasios Tsiortas, 2024. "Consumer participation in the credit market during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond," Working Papers 807, DNB.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:onb:oenbmp:y:2021:i:q2/21:b:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rita Glaser-Schwarz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/oenbbat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.