IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nzb/nzbbul/september20041.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The long-run effects of monetary policy on output growth

Author

Listed:
  • Christie Smith

    (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Abstract

This article looks at how interest rates and inflation affect growth in the capital stock, labour supply, and technology, the main determinants of long-run economic growth. Many additional factors affect long-run economic growth, but most of these factors lie outside the sphere of monetary policy. Monetary policy therefore has only a limited capacity to contribute to economic growth over the longer term. However, the evidence does indicate that keeping inflation low and stable makes a positive contribution to long-run economic growth, and that this is the most effective contribution that monetary policy can make to the economy's performance over time. This finding supports the monetary policy framework operational in New Zealand, which is focused on keeping inflation between 1 and 3 per cent on average over the medium term.

Suggested Citation

  • Christie Smith, 2004. "The long-run effects of monetary policy on output growth," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 67, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbbul:september2004:1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Bulletins/2004/2004sept67-3smith.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leo Bonato, 1998. "The benefits of price stability: some estimates for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 61, September.
    2. Hahn, Frank, 1990. "On Inflation," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 6(4), pages 15-25, Winter.
    3. Chris Hunt, 2004. "Interpreting clause 4(b) of the Policy Targets Agreement: avoiding unnecessary instability in output, interest rates and the exchange rate," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 67, june.
    4. Iris Claus & Christie Smith, 1999. "Financial intermediation and the monetary transmission mechanism," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, December.
    5. Ball, Laurence, 1994. "Credible Disinflation with Staggered Price-Setting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 282-289, March.
    6. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    7. Martin S. Feldstein, 1997. "The Costs and Benefits of Going from Low Inflation to Price Stability," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 123-166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Orphanides, Athanasios & Solow, Robert M., 1990. "Money, inflation and growth," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 223-261, Elsevier.
    9. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information: A Model of Monetary Nonneutrality and Structural Slumps," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1941, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    10. By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-1.
    11. Anne-Marie Brook & Özer Karagedikli & Dean Scrimgeour, 2002. "An optimal inflation target for New Zealand: lessons from the literature," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 65, September.
    12. Ho, Wai-Ming, 1996. "Imperfect Information, Money, and Economic Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 578-603, November.
    13. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2004. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 131-165, June.
    14. Bruce White, 2001. "Central banking: back to the future," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2001/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    15. Joseph H. Haslag, 1997. "Output, growth, welfare, and inflation: a survey," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 11-21.
    16. Rapach, David E, 2003. "International Evidence on the Long-Run Impact of Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 23-48, February.
    17. Gomme, Paul, 1993. "Money and growth revisited : Measuring the costs of inflation in an endogenous growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 51-77, August.
    18. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    19. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2004. "Truth and Robustness in Cross‐country Growth Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(5), pages 765-798, December.
    20. Leo Bonato, 1999. "Price stability: Some costs and benefits in New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 27-49.
    21. Paul Conway & Adrian Orr, 2000. "The process of economic growth in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 63, March.
    22. Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I Just Ran Four Million Regressions," NBER Working Papers 6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Eric van Wincoop & Philippe Bacchetta, 2000. "Does Exchange-Rate Stability Increase Trade and Welfare?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1093-1109, December.
    24. Mr. Arvind Subramanian & Mr. Francesco Trebbi & Mr. Dani Rodrik, 2002. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions over Integration and Geography in Economic Development," IMF Working Papers 2002/189, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Bruce White, 2001. "Central Banking: back to the future," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 64, september.
    26. Eduardo Ley & Mark F J Steel, 1999. "We have just averaged over two trillion cross-country growth regressions," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 43, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    27. Gomme, Paul, 1993. "Money and growth revisited : Measuring the costs of inflation in an endogenous growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 51-77, August.
    28. Thanasis Stengos & Theofanis P. Mamuneas & Pantelis Kalaitzidakis, 2002. "Specification and sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 645-656.
    29. Mr. Mark F. J. Steel & Mr. Eduardo Ley, 1999. "We Just Averaged over Two Trillion Cross-Country Growth Regressions," IMF Working Papers 1999/101, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alan Bollard, 2005. "New Zealand's potential growth rate," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 68, March.
    2. Julia Ratcliffe & Ross Kendall, 2019. "Monetary policy strategy in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 82, pages 1-25, April.
    3. Enock Nyorekwa Twinoburyo & Nicholas M Odhiambo, 2018. "Can Monetary Policy drive economic growth? Empirical evidence from Tanzania," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 12(2), June.
    4. Aaron Drew & Rishab Sethi, 2007. "The transmission mechanism of New Zealand monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 70, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shu-Hua Chen, 2015. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies in a Transactions-Based Endogenous Growth Model with Imperfect Competition," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 66(1), pages 89-111, March.
    2. Narayan Sethi & Saileja Mohanty & Sanhita Sucharita & Nanthakumar Loganathan, 2020. "Tax Reform And Economic Growth Nexus In India: Evidence From The Cointegration And Rolling-Window Causality," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(06), pages 1699-1725, December.
    3. James B. Bullard & John W. Keating, 1994. "Superneutrality in postwar economies," Working Papers 1994-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    5. Ramírez Rondán, Nelson & Aquino, Juan Carlos, 2006. "Crisis de inflación y productividad total de los factores en Latinoamérica," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 13.
    6. Zhou, Ge, 2011. "Money and Long-run Growth," MPRA Paper 33765, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Joseph H. Haslag, 1997. "Output, growth, welfare, and inflation: a survey," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 11-21.
    8. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Slesman, Ly & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic growth in emerging and developing countries: Panel data evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 638-657.
    9. Funk Peter & Kromen Bettina, 2010. "Inflation and Innovation-Driven Growth," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-52, August.
    10. Jones, Larry E. & Manuelli, Rodolfo E., 1995. "Growth and the effects of inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1405-1428, November.
    11. Stéphane Straub, 2000. "Factores determinantes empíricos de las buenas instituciones: ¿sabemos algo a ciencia cierta?," Research Department Publications 4216, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    12. Chang, Wen-ya & Chen, Ying-an & Chang, Juin-jen, 2013. "Growth and welfare effects of monetary policy with endogenous fertility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 117-130.
    13. Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides, 2005. "Growth Empirics Under Model Uncertainty: Is Africa Different?," IMF Working Papers 2005/018, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Stéphane Straub, 2000. "Empirical Determinants of Good Institutions: Do We Know Anything?," Research Department Publications 4215, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    15. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2001. "Theory and Evidence on the Political Economy of Growth," Working Papers 33, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2001.
    16. R. Grafton & Tom Kompas & P. Owen, 2007. "Bridging the barriers: knowledge connections, productivity and capital accumulation," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 219-231, December.
    17. Arvanitidis, Paschalis & Petrakos, George & Pavleas, Sotiris, 2007. "Determinants of economic growth: the experts’ view," Papers DYNREG20, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    18. Robert Amano & Tom Carter & Kevin Moran, 2012. "Inflation and Growth: A New Keynesian Perspective," CIRANO Working Papers 2012s-20, CIRANO.
    19. João Ricardo Faria & Francisco Galrão Carneiro, 2001. "Does High Inflation Affect Growth in the Long and Short Run?," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 89-105, May.
    20. Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin B., 2006. "On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 478-500, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbbul:september2004:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Knowledge Centre (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbngvnz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.