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An optimal inflation target for New Zealand: lessons from the literature

Author

Listed:
  • Anne-Marie Brook
  • Özer Karagedikli
  • Dean Scrimgeour

    (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Abstract

In this article we summarise the recent economic literature on the relationship between inflation and growth, to assess what inflation target might be most consistent with the fastest pace of sustainable economic growth. One conclusion is that the relationship between inflation and growth seems to be different at different rates of inflation. At very low rates of inflation, including the 0 - 3 per cent range, the growth rate seems to be independent of the inflation rate. But at higher rates of inflation, there is evidence that inflation does significant damage to growth. There is some theoretical literature which cautions central banks against deflation, and therefore against including zero in an inflation target range. As yet there is little data available with which to test this presumption. Based on the theoretical arguments, we conclude that the risks of New Zealand being caught in a deflationary trap are low. Overall, we conclude that average rates of inflation in New Zealand have been within the `optimal inflation range' suggested by the literature. Interested readers may wish to consult a longer and more comprehensive version of this paper, contained in the Bank's publication on PTA related issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Anne-Marie Brook & Özer Karagedikli & Dean Scrimgeour, 2002. "An optimal inflation target for New Zealand: lessons from the literature," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 65, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbbul:september2002:1
    as

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    File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Bulletins/2002/2002sep65-3BrookKaragedikliScrimgeour.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Christie Smith, 2004. "The long-run effects of monetary policy on output growth," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 67, September.
    2. Christie Smith & Omar Aziz, 2019. "Monetary policy objectives- price stability and macro stabilisation," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 82, pages 1-14, April.
    3. Réka Juhász, 2008. "The optimal rate of inflation and the inflation target: international experience and the Hungarian perspective," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 3(2), pages 30-37, September.
    4. Nicoletta Batini & Douglas Laxton, 2007. "Under What Conditions Can Inflation Targeting Be Adopted? The Experience of Emerging Markets," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 12, pages 467-506, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Jean-Baptiste Nkume, 2014. "Optimal Inflation Threshold for Economic Growth in Malawi," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 6(12), pages 933-946.

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