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Ratchet Effect in Import Prices – Inflation Rate Nexus

Author

Listed:
  • Mutiu A. Oyinlola
  • Tirimisiyu F. Oloko
  • Samuel Orekoya

Abstract

This study examined the existence of the ratchet effect in the import price-inflation rate nexus for advanced (high-income) and emerging (middle-income) countries. The study used monthly data from 1980M01 to 2019M07 and compared the potential of the dummy variable-based asymmetric model with that of the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model in modelling the ratchet effect. The result showed that the ratchet effect exists in the import price-inflation rate nexus for high-income and middle-income countries. This suggests that the issue of imported inflation and ratchet effect is country-specific. The significance of the ratchet effect in these countries implies that maintaining a (symmetric) rule-based counter-cyclical monetary policy when dealing with import price shocks would be inefficient, and can make monetary policy harm the economy in the medium to the long term. It is, therefore, recommended that each country should examine the existence or otherwise of ratchet in her import price - inflation rate nexus to determine whether it should adopt a symmetric or an asymmetric rule-based counter-cyclical monetary policy against import price shocks to avoid harming the economy through the implementation of an inefficient monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Mutiu A. Oyinlola & Tirimisiyu F. Oloko & Samuel Orekoya, 2021. "Ratchet Effect in Import Prices – Inflation Rate Nexus," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 3, pages 335-354, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nwe:eajour:y:2021:i:3:p:335-354
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Imported inflation; Ratchet effect; Middle income countries; Asymmetric Modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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