IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nwe/eajour/y2021i3p335-354.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ratchet Effect in Import Prices – Inflation Rate Nexus

Author

Listed:
  • Mutiu A. Oyinlola
  • Tirimisiyu F. Oloko
  • Samuel Orekoya

Abstract

This study examined the existence of the ratchet effect in the import price-inflation rate nexus for advanced (high-income) and emerging (middle-income) countries. The study used monthly data from 1980M01 to 2019M07 and compared the potential of the dummy variable-based asymmetric model with that of the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model in modelling the ratchet effect. The result showed that the ratchet effect exists in the import price-inflation rate nexus for high-income and middle-income countries. This suggests that the issue of imported inflation and ratchet effect is country-specific. The significance of the ratchet effect in these countries implies that maintaining a (symmetric) rule-based counter-cyclical monetary policy when dealing with import price shocks would be inefficient, and can make monetary policy harm the economy in the medium to the long term. It is, therefore, recommended that each country should examine the existence or otherwise of ratchet in her import price - inflation rate nexus to determine whether it should adopt a symmetric or an asymmetric rule-based counter-cyclical monetary policy against import price shocks to avoid harming the economy through the implementation of an inefficient monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Mutiu A. Oyinlola & Tirimisiyu F. Oloko & Samuel Orekoya, 2021. "Ratchet Effect in Import Prices – Inflation Rate Nexus," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 3, pages 335-354, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nwe:eajour:y:2021:i:3:p:335-354
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.unwe.bg/doi/eajournal/2021.3/EA.2021.3.01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abbas, Syed Kanwar & Lan, Hao, 2020. "Commodity price pass-through and inflation regimes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    2. Lagoa, Sérgio, 2014. "Inflation dynamics in open economies: Empirical evidence for G7 countries on the role of import prices and the cost channel," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 354-371.
    3. Gary Charness & Peter Kuhn & Marie Claire Villeval, 2011. "Competition and the Ratchet Effect," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(3), pages 513-547.
    4. Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
    5. Murthy, Vasudeva N.R. & Okunade, Albert A., 2016. "Determinants of U.S. health expenditure: Evidence from autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 67-73.
    6. Rassekh, Farhad & Wilbratte, Barry, 1990. "The Effect of Import Price Changes on Domestic Inflation: An Empirical Test of the Ratchet Effect," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(2), pages 263-267, May.
    7. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    8. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    9. Edward F. Blackburne III & Mark W. Frank, 2007. "Estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous panels," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 7(2), pages 197-208, June.
    10. Farhad Rassekh & Omid Ranjbar, 2014. "An Empirical Investigation of the Ratchet Effect in the OECD, 1985--2009," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 183-190, March.
    11. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O., 2018. "Predicting US inflation: Evidence from a new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 134-158.
    12. Salisu, Afees A. & Adediran, Idris A. & Oloko, Tirimisiyu O. & Ohemeng, William, 2020. "The heterogeneous behaviour of the inflation hedging property of cocoa," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    13. Anna Kormilitsina, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks and the Optimality of Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 199-223, January.
    14. Alsamara, Mouyad & Mrabet, Zouhair & Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2020. "Pass-through of import cost into consumer prices and inflation in GCC countries: Evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 89-101.
    15. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    16. Tule, Moses K. & Salisu, Afees A. & Ebuh, Godday U., 2020. "A test for inflation persistence in Nigeria using fractional integration & fractional cointegration techniques," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 225-237.
    17. Hottman, Colin J. & Monarch, Ryan, 2020. "A matter of taste: Estimating import price inflation across U.S. income groups," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    18. Alsamara, Mouyad & Mrabet, Zouhair & Dombrecht, Michel, 2018. "Asymmetric import cost pass-through in GCC countries: Evidence from nonlinear panel analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 432-440.
    19. Shirvani, Hassan & Wilbratte, Barry, 1999. "The Asymmetric Response of Domestic Prices to Changes in Import Prices: A Cointegration Test of the Rachet Effect," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 381-396, April.
    20. Wei, Chen, 2020. "Can job rotation eliminate the Ratchet effect: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 66-84.
    21. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O., 2017. "Revisiting the oil price and stock market nexus: A nonlinear Panel ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 258-271.
    22. Osorio, Carolina & Unsal, D. Filiz, 2013. "Inflation dynamics in Asia: Causes, changes, and spillovers from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 26-40.
    23. Cardella, Eric & Depew, Briggs, 2018. "Output restriction and the ratchet effect: Evidence from a real-effort work task," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 182-202.
    24. Mutiu A. Oyinlola & Tirimisyu F. Oloko, 2018. "Exchange rate dynamics and stock market performance in Nigeria: Evidence from a Nonlinear ARDL Approach," Working Papers 059, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    25. Oloko, Tirimisiyu F. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Adedeji, Abdulfatai A. & Lakhani, Noman, 2021. "Oil price shocks and inflation rate persistence: A Fractional Cointegration VAR approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 259-275.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Salisu, Afees A. & Ndako, Umar B., 2018. "Modelling stock price–exchange rate nexus in OECD countries: A new perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 105-123.
    2. Afees A. Salisu & Elias A. Udeaja & Silva Opuala-Charles, 2022. "Central Bank Independence And Price Stability Under Alternative Political Regimes: A Global Evidence," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 25(2), pages 155-172, August.
    3. Tan, Yan & Uprasen, Utai, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on income inequality in ASEAN countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Salisu, Afees A. & Ndako, Umar B. & Oloko, Tirimisiyu F., 2019. "Assessing the inflation hedging of gold and palladium in OECD countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 357-377.
    5. Iman Cheratian & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Saleh Goltabar, 2019. "Oil Price Shocks and Unemployment Rate: New Evidence from the MENA Region," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201931, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Bakry, Walid & Nghiem, Xuan-Hoa & Farouk, Sherine & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Does it hurt or help? Revisiting the effects of ICT on economic growth and energy consumption: A nonlinear panel ARDL approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 597-617.
    7. Gangopadhyay, Partha & Jain, Siddharth & Bakry, Walid, 2022. "In search of a rational foundation for the massive IT boom in the Australian banking industry: Can the IT boom really drive relationship banking?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    8. Wanniarachchi, Sasindu Lakruwan, 2020. "The Nexus among External Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from South Asia," OSF Preprints ghfdb, Center for Open Science.
    9. Swaray, Raymond & Salisu, Afees A., 2018. "A firm-level analysis of the upstream-downstream dichotomy in the oil-stock nexus," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 199-218.
    10. Philips, Abiodun S. & Akinseye, Ademola B. & Oduyemi, Gabriel O., 2022. "Do exchange rate and inflation rate matter in the cyclicality of oil price and stock returns?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    11. Ibrahim Abdulhamid Danlami, 2020. "Revisiting the West African Commonwealth Countries’ Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Inflation," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 6(1), pages 70-77, March.
    12. Tsermenidis, Konstantinos, 2014. "Προσδιοριστικοί Παράγοντες Της Εθνικής Αποταμίευσης Κατά Την Περίοδο 1990-2010 Και Μέτρα Ενίσχυσης Της Οικονομικής Ανάπτυξης [The Determinants of National Savings in Greece during the period 1990-2," MPRA Paper 56773, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Sharma, Chandan & Pal, Debdatta, 2018. "Exchange rate volatility and India's cross-border trade: A pooled mean group and nonlinear cointegration approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 230-246.
    14. Daniel Goya, 2014. "The Multiple Impacts of the Exchange Rate on Export Diversification," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1436, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    15. Shigeo Morita & Tomoharu Mori, 2024. "The ratchet effect and the probability of proceeding to the next stage: An experiment," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 76(3), pages 797-812, July.
    16. Goya, Daniel, 2020. "The exchange rate and export variety: A cross-country analysis with long panel estimators," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 649-665.
    17. Oloko, Tirimisiyu F. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Adedeji, Abdulfatai A. & Lakhani, Noman, 2021. "Fractional cointegration between gold price and inflation rate: Implication for inflation rate persistence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Jalil, Abdul, 2014. "Energy–growth conundrum in energy exporting and importing countries: Evidence from heterogeneous panel methods robust to cross-sectional dependence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 314-324.
    19. Olusanya E. Olubusoye & Afees A. Salisu & Sam O. Olofin, 2023. "Youth unemployment in Nigeria: nature, causes and solutions," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1125-1157, April.
    20. Alsamara, Mouyad & Mrabet, Zouhair & Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2020. "Pass-through of import cost into consumer prices and inflation in GCC countries: Evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 89-101.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Imported inflation; Ratchet effect; Middle income countries; Asymmetric Modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nwe:eajour:y:2021:i:3:p:335-354. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vanya Lazarova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/unweebg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.