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Stepping Stone or Dead End? The Effect of the EITC on Earnings Growth

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  • Dahl, Molly
  • DeLeire, Thomas
  • Schwabish, Jonathan

Abstract

While many studies have found that the EITC increases the employment rates of single mothers, no study to date has examined whether the jobs taken by single mothers as a result of the EITC incentives are “dead–end” jobs or jobs that have the potential for earnings growth. Using a panel of administrative earnings data linked to nationally representative survey data, we find no evidence that the EITC expansions between 1994 and 1996 induced single mothers to take “dead–end” jobs. If anything, the increase in earnings growth during the mid–to–late 1990s for single mothers who were particularly affected by the EITC expansion was higher than it was for other similar women. The EITC encourages work among single mothers, and that work continues to pay off through future increases in earnings.

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  • Dahl, Molly & DeLeire, Thomas & Schwabish, Jonathan, 2009. "Stepping Stone or Dead End? The Effect of the EITC on Earnings Growth," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 62(2), pages 329-346, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ntj:journl:v:62:y:2009:i:2:p:329-46
    DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2009.2.06
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    Cited by:

    1. Austin Nichols & Jesse Rothstein, 2015. "The Earned Income Tax Credit," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of Means-Tested Transfer Programs in the United States, Volume 1, pages 137-218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Neumark, David & Shirley, Peter, 2020. "The Long-Run Effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Women's Labor Market Outcomes," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Dodini, Samuel & Larrimore, Jeff & Tranfaglia, Anna, 2024. "Financial repercussions of SNAP work requirements," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    4. Gibson, John & Norton, Douglas A. & White, Robert A., 2019. "The backward hustle: An experimental investigation of tax code notches and labor supply," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 432-445.
    5. Tim Dowd & John B. Horowitz, 2011. "Income Mobility and the Earned Income Tax Credit," Public Finance Review, , vol. 39(5), pages 619-652, September.
    6. Melanie Guldi & Lucie Schmidt, 2017. "Taxes, Transfers, and Women’s Labor Supply in the United States," Working Papers 2017-01, University of Central Florida, Department of Economics.
    7. Natasha Pilkauskas & Katherine Michelmore, 2019. "The Effect of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Housing and Living Arrangements," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(4), pages 1303-1326, August.
    8. David Neumark, 2016. "Policy levers to increase jobs and increase income from work after the Great Recession," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-38, December.
    9. Richard Blundell, 2024. "Beyond tax credits and the minimum wage: the challenge of labour market inequality," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(1), pages 25-42, March.
    10. David Neumark & Brian Asquith & Brittany Bass, 2020. "Longer‐Run Effects Of Anti‐Poverty Policies On Disadvantaged Neighborhoods," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(3), pages 409-434, July.
    11. H. Shaefer & Xiaoqing Song & Trina Williams Shanks, 2013. "Do single mothers in the United States use the Earned Income Tax Credit to reduce unsecured debt?," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 659-680, December.
    12. Molly Dahl & Thomas DeLeire & Jonathan Schwabish & Timothy Smeeding, 2012. "The Earned Income Tax Credit and Expected Social Security Retirement Benefits Among Low-Income Women: Working Paper 2012-06," Working Papers 43033, Congressional Budget Office.
    13. David Neumark & Peter Shirley, 2017. "The Long-Run Effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit on Women’s Earnings," NBER Working Papers 24114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Bastian, Jacob E. & Jones, Maggie R., 2021. "Do EITC expansions pay for themselves? Effects on tax revenue and government transfers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    15. Natasha Pilkauskas & Katherine Michelmore, 2017. "Does the Earned Income Tax Credit Reduce Housing Instability?," Working Papers wp18-01-ff, Princeton University, School of Public and International Affairs, Center for Research on Child Wellbeing..

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    JEL classification:

    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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