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Comment: Social Security and Private Savings

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  • Meguire, Philip

Abstract

From estimates of a modified life-cycle consumer expenditure function (LCF), Feldstein (1996) concluded that Social Security old age benefits reduced 1992 private saving by more than $400 billion. (1992 net (gross) private saving was $425 ($1,474) billion.) I confirm this finding, and show that it is more than three times its standard error but entirely due to the post-1971 data. However, the LCF tacitly constrains the effects of fiscal flows in ways the data reject. Feldstein also mismeasures private wealth and overlooks structural breaks occurring in 1947 and 1972. Once these specification and data errors are corrected, Social Security reduced 1992 private saving by at most $35 billion, with a standard error of $120-$160 billion.

Suggested Citation

  • Meguire, Philip, 1998. "Comment: Social Security and Private Savings," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 51(2), pages 339-358, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ntj:journl:v:51:y:1998:i:2:p:339-58
    DOI: 10.1086/NTJ41789331
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Feldstein, Martin, 1996. "Social Security and Saving: New Time Series Evidence," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 49(2), pages 151-164, June.
    2. Beach, Charles M & MacKinnon, James G, 1978. "A Maximum Likelihood Procedure for Regression with Autocorrelated Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 51-58, January.
    3. Darby, Julia & Malley, Jim, 1996. "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Consumption: New Evidence from the United States," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(2), pages 129-145, May.
    4. John W. Kendrick, 1961. "Productivity Trends in the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kend61-1.
    5. Seater, John J, 1993. "Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 142-190, March.
    6. Leimer, Dean R & Lesnoy, Selig D, 1982. "Social Security and Private Saving: New Time-Series Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(3), pages 606-629, June.
    7. Feldstein, Martin, 1996. "Social Security and Saving: New Time Series Evidence," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(2), pages 151-64, June.
    8. Kormendi, Roger C, 1983. "Government Debt, Government Spending, and Private Sector Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 994-1010, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gumus, Erdal, 2005. "Benefit-Cost Analysis of Reforming the Turkish Social Insurance Institution for the Self-Employed (Bağ-Kur)," MPRA Paper 42108, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Renáta Pitoňáková, 2018. "Private Sector Savings," DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, European Association Comenius - EACO, issue 1, pages 1-17, March.
    3. Bellettini, Giorgio & Ceroni, Carlotta Berti, 2000. "Social security expenditure and economic growth: an empirical assessment," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 249-275, September.
    4. H. Yigit Aydede, 2007. "Saving and Social Security Wealth: A Case of Turkey," NFI Working Papers 2007-WP-03, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    5. Gumus, Erdal, 2005. "Benefit-Cost Analysis of Turkish Social Insurance Institute Gradual Privatization Proposal," MPRA Paper 42372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. H. Yigit Aydede, 2007. "Expected Social Security Wealth Simulations and Generational Fairness of the Turkish PAYG System," NFI Working Papers 2007-WP-21, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.

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