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Universal history and population change

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  • Dirk J. Van De Kaa

Abstract

Prophesying the end of Europe is a popular pastime. The idea that civilizations and nations, just like human beings, go through a cycle of rise, shine and decline is part of the attempt to make sense of, and to seek regularities in the flow of history. The rise and decline approach to universal history no longer has credibility amongst professional historians. However, it still echoes in the halls of learning and is popular among commentators and publicists. This paper discusses various approaches to universal history, some recent views on the future of Europe, and argues that the continent’s current demographic situation and outlook can be much better understood if they are considered in the perspective offered by Arland Thornton’s developmental paradigm and the concept of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) or revolution.

Suggested Citation

  • Dirk J. Van De Kaa, 2010. "Universal history and population change," Demográfia English Edition, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, vol. 53(5), pages 5-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:nki:journl:v:53:y:2010:i:5:p:5-20
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    File URL: http://demografia.hu/en/publicationsonline/index.php/demografiaenglishedition/article/download/228/614/228-617-1-PB.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maria Rita Testa & Vegard Skirbekk & Wolfgang Lutz, 2006. "The Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis. Forces that May Lead to Further Postponement and Fewer Births in Europe," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 167-192.
    2. Ron Lesthaeghe, 2010. "The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(2), pages 211-251, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Frans J. Willekens, 2014. "Demographic transitions in Europe and the world," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2014-004, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic Trends; Population; Europe; Second Demographic Transition (SDT); Future of Europe; Future of Nations; Population change; Developmental paradigm; Universal History;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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