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Optimal nitrogen rate strategy for sustainable rice production in China

Author

Listed:
  • Siyuan Cai

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Xu Zhao

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Cameron M. Pittelkow

    (University of California, Davis)

  • Mingsheng Fan

    (China Agricultural University)

  • Xin Zhang

    (University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science)

  • Xiaoyuan Yan

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

Avoiding excessive agricultural nitrogen (N) use without compromising yields has long been a priority for both research and government policy in China1,2. Although numerous rice-related strategies have been proposed3–5, few studies have assessed their impacts on national food self-sufficiency and environmental sustainability and fewer still have considered economic risks faced by millions of smallholders. Here we established an optimal N rate strategy based on maximizing either economic (ON) or ecological (EON) performance using new subregion-specific models. Using an extensive on-farm dataset, we then assessed the risk of yield losses among smallholder farmers and the challenges of implementing the optimal N rate strategy. We find that meeting national rice production targets in 2030 is possible while concurrently reducing nationwide N consumption by 10% (6–16%) and 27% (22–32%), mitigating reactive N (Nr) losses by 7% (3–13%) and 24% (19–28%) and increasing N-use efficiency by 30% (3–57%) and 36% (8–64%) for ON and EON, respectively. This study identifies and targets subregions with disproportionate environmental impacts and proposes N rate strategies to limit national Nr pollution below proposed environmental thresholds, without compromising soil N stocks or economic benefits for smallholders. Thereafter, the preferable N strategy is allocated to each region based on the trade-off between economic risk and environmental benefit. To facilitate the adoption of the annually revised subregional N rate strategy, several recommendations were provided, including a monitoring network, fertilization quotas and smallholder subsidies.

Suggested Citation

  • Siyuan Cai & Xu Zhao & Cameron M. Pittelkow & Mingsheng Fan & Xin Zhang & Xiaoyuan Yan, 2023. "Optimal nitrogen rate strategy for sustainable rice production in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 615(7950), pages 73-79, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:615:y:2023:i:7950:d:10.1038_s41586-022-05678-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-05678-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Yang & Zhang, Yan & Gao, Yan & McLaughlin, Neil B. & Huang, Dandan & Wang, Yang & Chen, Xuewen & Zhang, Shixiu & Liang, Aizhen, 2024. "Effects of tillage practices on environment, energy, and economy of maize production in Northeast China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    2. Ke Liu & Qiang Fu, 2024. "Does Geopolitical Risk Affect Agricultural Exports? Chinese Evidence from the Perspective of Agricultural Land," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-15, March.
    3. Chaofan Ma & Lingzhi Wang & Yangfan Chen & Junjie Wu & Anqi Liang & Xinyao Li & Chengge Jiang & Hichem Omrani, 2024. "Evolution and Drivers of Production Patterns of Major Crops in Jilin Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-19, July.
    4. Xinyan Liu & Huanhao Han & Shixiang Gu & Rong Gao, 2023. "Effects of Urea Application on Soil Organic Nitrogen Mineralization and Nitrogen Fertilizer Availability in a Rice–Broad Bean Rotation System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-17, March.
    5. Panpan Ji & Jianhui Chen & Ruijin Chen & Jianbao Liu & Chaoqing Yu & Fahu Chen, 2024. "Nitrogen and phosphorus trends in lake sediments of China may diverge," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.

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