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Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests

Author

Listed:
  • Wannes Hubau

    (University of Leeds
    Royal Museum for Central Africa
    Ghent University)

  • Simon L. Lewis

    (University of Leeds
    University College London)

  • Oliver L. Phillips

    (University of Leeds)

  • Kofi Affum-Baffoe

    (Forestry Commission of Ghana)

  • Hans Beeckman

    (Royal Museum for Central Africa)

  • Aida Cuní-Sanchez

    (University College London
    University of York)

  • Armandu K. Daniels

    (Forestry Development Authority of the Government of Liberia (FDA))

  • Corneille E. N. Ewango

    (Wildlife Conservation Society
    Centre de Formation et de Recherche en Conservation Forestière (CEFRECOF)
    Université de Kisangani)

  • Sophie Fauset

    (University of Plymouth)

  • Jacques M. Mukinzi

    (Wildlife Conservation Society
    Salonga National Park
    World Wide Fund for Nature)

  • Douglas Sheil

    (Norwegian University of Life Sciences)

  • Bonaventure Sonké

    (University of Yaounde I)

  • Martin J. P. Sullivan

    (University of Leeds
    Manchester Metropolitan University)

  • Terry C. H. Sunderland

    (Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR)
    University of British Columbia)

  • Hermann Taedoumg

    (University of Yaounde I
    Bioversity International)

  • Sean C. Thomas

    (University of Toronto)

  • Lee J. T. White

    (Ministry of Forests, Seas, Environment and Climate
    Institut de Recherche en Écologie Tropicale
    University of Stirling)

  • Katharine A. Abernethy

    (Institut de Recherche en Écologie Tropicale
    University of Stirling)

  • Stephen Adu-Bredu

    (Forestry Research Institute of Ghana (FORIG))

  • Christian A. Amani

    (Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR)
    Université Officielle de Bukavu)

  • Timothy R. Baker

    (University of Leeds)

  • Lindsay F. Banin

    (UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology)

  • Fidèle Baya

    (Ministère des Eaux, Forêts, Chasse et Pêche (MEFCP)
    Institut Centrafricain de Recherche Agronomique (ICRA))

  • Serge K. Begne

    (University of Leeds
    University of Yaounde I)

  • Amy C. Bennett

    (University of Leeds)

  • Fabrice Benedet

    (Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD)
    Université de Montpellier)

  • Robert Bitariho

    (Mbarara University of Science and Technology (MUST))

  • Yannick E. Bocko

    (Université Marien Ngouabi)

  • Pascal Boeckx

    (Ghent University)

  • Patrick Boundja

    (Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR)
    Wildlife Conservation Society)

  • Roel J. W. Brienen

    (University of Leeds)

  • Terry Brncic

    (Wildlife Conservation Society)

  • Eric Chezeaux

    (Rougier-Gabon)

  • George B. Chuyong

    (University of Buea)

  • Connie J. Clark

    (Duke University)

  • Murray Collins

    (University of Edinburgh
    Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment)

  • James A. Comiskey

    (National Park Service
    Smithsonian Institution)

  • David A. Coomes

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Greta C. Dargie

    (University of Leeds)

  • Thales Haulleville

    (Royal Museum for Central Africa)

  • Marie Noel Djuikouo Kamdem

    (University of Buea)

  • Jean-Louis Doucet

    (University of Liège)

  • Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert

    (University of Leeds
    University of Birmingham)

  • Ted R. Feldpausch

    (University of Exeter)

  • Alusine Fofanah

    (The Gola Rainforest National Park)

  • Ernest G. Foli

    (Forestry Research Institute of Ghana (FORIG))

  • Martin Gilpin

    (University of Leeds)

  • Emanuel Gloor

    (University of Leeds)

  • Christelle Gonmadje

    (National Herbarium)

  • Sylvie Gourlet-Fleury

    (Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD)
    Université de Montpellier)

  • Jefferson S. Hall

    (Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute)

  • Alan C. Hamilton

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • David J. Harris

    (Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh)

  • Terese B. Hart

    (Lukuru Wildlife Research Foundation
    Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History)

  • Mireille B. N. Hockemba

    (Wildlife Conservation Society)

  • Annette Hladik

    (Muséum National d’Histoire Naturel)

  • Suspense A. Ifo

    (Université Marien Ngouabi)

  • Kathryn J. Jeffery

    (University of Stirling)

  • Tommaso Jucker

    (University of Bristol)

  • Emmanuel Kasongo Yakusu

    (Royal Museum for Central Africa
    Ghent University
    Université de Kisangani)

  • Elizabeth Kearsley

    (Royal Museum for Central Africa
    Ghent University)

  • David Kenfack

    (Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
    Tropical Ecology, Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network)

  • Alexander Koch

    (University College London
    University of Hong Kong)

  • Miguel E. Leal

    (Uganda Programme, Wildlife Conservation Society)

  • Aurora Levesley

    (University of Leeds)

  • Jeremy A. Lindsell

    (A Rocha International
    The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds)

  • Janvier Lisingo

    (Université de Kisangani)

  • Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez

    (University of Leeds)

  • Jon C. Lovett

    (University of Leeds
    Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew)

  • Jean-Remy Makana

    (Université de Kisangani)

  • Yadvinder Malhi

    (University of Oxford)

  • Andrew R. Marshall

    (University of York
    University of the Sunshine Coast
    Flamingo Land Ltd)

  • Jim Martin

    (Fleming College)

  • Emanuel H. Martin

    (Tropical Ecology, Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network
    Udzungwa Ecological Monitoring Centre)

  • Faustin M. Mbayu

    (Université de Kisangani)

  • Vincent P. Medjibe

    (Duke University
    Commission of Central African Forests (COMIFAC)
    Agence Nationale des Parcs Nationaux)

  • Vianet Mihindou

    (Ministry of Forests, Seas, Environment and Climate
    Agence Nationale des Parcs Nationaux)

  • Edward T. A. Mitchard

    (University of Edinburgh)

  • Sam Moore

    (University of Oxford)

  • Pantaleo K. T. Munishi

    (Sokoine University of Agriculture)

  • Natacha Nssi Bengone

    (Ministry of Forests, Seas, Environment and Climate)

  • Lucas Ojo

    (University of Abeokuta)

  • Fidèle Evouna Ondo

    (Agence Nationale des Parcs Nationaux)

  • Kelvin S.-H. Peh

    (University of Southampton
    University of Cambridge)

  • Georgia C. Pickavance

    (University of Leeds)

  • Axel Dalberg Poulsen

    (Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh)

  • John R. Poulsen

    (Duke University)

  • Lan Qie

    (University of Leeds
    University of Lincoln)

  • Jan Reitsma

    (Bureau Waardenburg)

  • Francesco Rovero

    (University of Florence
    Tropical Biodiversity Section, MUSE—Museo delle Scienze)

  • Michael D. Swaine

    (University of Aberdeen)

  • Joey Talbot

    (University of Leeds
    University of Leeds)

  • James Taplin

    (UK Research & Innovation, Innovate UK)

  • David M. Taylor

    (National University of Singapore)

  • Duncan W. Thomas

    (Washington State University)

  • Benjamin Toirambe

    (Royal Museum for Central Africa
    Ministère de l’Environnement et Développement Durable)

  • John Tshibamba Mukendi

    (Royal Museum for Central Africa
    Université de Kisangani
    Université de Mbujimayi)

  • Darlington Tuagben

    (Forestry Development Authority of the Government of Liberia (FDA)
    Friends of Ecosystem and the Environment)

  • Peter M. Umunay

    (Yale University
    Wildlife Conservation Society)

  • Geertje M. F. Heijden

    (University of Nottingham)

  • Hans Verbeeck

    (Ghent University)

  • Jason Vleminckx

    (Florida International University
    Université Libre de Bruxelles)

  • Simon Willcock

    (University of Bangor)

  • Hannsjörg Wöll

    (Independent Researcher)

  • John T. Woods

    (University of Liberia)

  • Lise Zemagho

    (University of Yaounde I)

Abstract

Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered about half of the global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing about 15 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions1–3. Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest ‘carbon sink’ will continue for decades4,5. Here we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year (95 per cent confidence interval 0.53–0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests6. Therefore the carbon sink responses of Earth’s two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature7–9. Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our most intensively monitored plots suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including carbon dioxide, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, whereas the Amazonian sink continues to weaken rapidly. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth’s intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass10 reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked. This saturation and ongoing decline of the tropical forest carbon sink has consequences for policies intended to stabilize Earth’s climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Wannes Hubau & Simon L. Lewis & Oliver L. Phillips & Kofi Affum-Baffoe & Hans Beeckman & Aida Cuní-Sanchez & Armandu K. Daniels & Corneille E. N. Ewango & Sophie Fauset & Jacques M. Mukinzi & Douglas , 2020. "Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests," Nature, Nature, vol. 579(7797), pages 80-87, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:579:y:2020:i:7797:d:10.1038_s41586-020-2035-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2035-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Huanyuan Zhang-Zheng & Stephen Adu-Bredu & Akwasi Duah-Gyamfi & Sam Moore & Shalom D. Addo-Danso & Lucy Amissah & Riccardo Valentini & Gloria Djagbletey & Kelvin Anim-Adjei & John Quansah & Bernice Sa, 2024. "Contrasting carbon cycle along tropical forest aridity gradients in West Africa and Amazonia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Sara Karam & Ousmane Seidou & Nidhi Nagabhatla & Duminda Perera & Raphael M. Tshimanga, 2022. "Assessing the impacts of climate change on climatic extremes in the Congo River Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-24, February.
    3. Julia Noë & Karl-Heinz Erb & Sarah Matej & Andreas Magerl & Manan Bhan & Simone Gingrich, 2021. "Altered growth conditions more than reforestation counteracted forest biomass carbon emissions 1990–2020," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Rius, Bianca Fazio & Filho, João Paulo Darela & Fleischer, Katrin & Hofhansl, Florian & Blanco, Carolina Casagrande & Rammig, Anja & Domingues, Tomas Ferreira & Lapola, David Montenegro, 2023. "Higher functional diversity improves modeling of Amazon forest carbon storage," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 481(C).
    5. Lea Dorgeist & Clemens Schwingshackl & Selma Bultan & Julia Pongratz, 2024. "A consistent budgeting of terrestrial carbon fluxes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    6. Emmanuel Kasongo Yakusu & Joris Van Acker & Hans Van de Vyver & Nils Bourland & José Mbifo Ndiapo & Théophile Besango Likwela & Michel Lokonda Wa Kipifo & Amand Mbuya Kankolongo & Jan Van den Bulcke &, 2023. "Ground-based climate data show evidence of warming and intensification of the seasonal rainfall cycle during the 1960–2020 period in Yangambi, central Congo Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(10), pages 1-28, October.
    7. César Augusto Ruiz-Agudelo & Francisco Paula Gutiérrez-Bonilla, 2024. "The remnant natural capital of the Magdalena-Cauca basin: immense losses for the 80% of Colombian inhabitants," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 14(1), pages 135-153, March.
    8. Selma Bultan & Julia E. M. S. Nabel & Kerstin Hartung & Raphael Ganzenmüller & Liang Xu & Sassan Saatchi & Julia Pongratz, 2022. "Tracking 21st century anthropogenic and natural carbon fluxes through model-data integration," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    9. Jörg Müller & Oliver Mitesser & H. Martin Schaefer & Sebastian Seibold & Annika Busse & Peter Kriegel & Dominik Rabl & Rudy Gelis & Alejandro Arteaga & Juan Freile & Gabriel Augusto Leite & Tomaz Nasc, 2023. "Soundscapes and deep learning enable tracking biodiversity recovery in tropical forests," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    10. Taylor Smith & Niklas Boers, 2023. "Global vegetation resilience linked to water availability and variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    11. Aida Cuni-Sanchez & Emanuel H. Martin & Eustrate Uzabaho & Alain S. K. Ngute & Robert Bitariho & Charles Kayijamahe & Andrew R. Marshall & Nassoro A. Mohamed & Gideon A. Mseja & Aventino Nkwasibwe & F, 2024. "Evidence of thermophilization in Afromontane forests," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    12. Harding, Torfinn & Herzberg, Julika & Kuralbayeva, Karlygash, 2021. "Commodity prices and robust environmental regulation: Evidence from deforestation in Brazil," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    13. Yue Li & Paulo M. Brando & Douglas C. Morton & David M. Lawrence & Hui Yang & James T. Randerson, 2022. "Deforestation-induced climate change reduces carbon storage in remaining tropical forests," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    14. Wenmin Zhang & Guy Schurgers & Josep Peñuelas & Rasmus Fensholt & Hui Yang & Jing Tang & Xiaowei Tong & Philippe Ciais & Martin Brandt, 2023. "Recent decrease of the impact of tropical temperature on the carbon cycle linked to increased precipitation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.

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