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The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming

Author

Listed:
  • Sonia I. Seneviratne

    (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich)

  • Joeri Rogelj

    (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford
    Grantham Institute, Imperial College London)

  • Roland Séférian

    (Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo-France/CNRS)

  • Richard Wartenburger

    (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich)

  • Myles R. Allen

    (Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford)

  • Michelle Cain

    (Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford)

  • Richard J. Millar

    (Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford)

  • Kristie L. Ebi

    (University of Washington)

  • Neville Ellis

    (School of Agriculture and Environment, University of Western Australia)

  • Ove Hoegh-Guldberg

    (Global Change Institute, University of Queensland)

  • Antony J. Payne

    (University of Bristol)

  • Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

    (Climate Analytics
    IRITHESys, Humboldt University
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Petra Tschakert

    (School of Agriculture and Environment, University of Western Australia)

  • Rachel F. Warren

    (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia)

Abstract

The United Nations’ Paris Agreement includes the aim of pursuing efforts to limit global warming to only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not clear what the resulting climate would look like across the globe and over time. Here we show that trajectories towards a ‘1.5 °C warmer world’ may result in vastly different outcomes at regional scales, owing to variations in the pace and location of climate change and their interactions with society’s mitigation, adaptation and vulnerabilities to climate change. Pursuing policies that are considered to be consistent with the 1.5 °C aim will not completely remove the risk of global temperatures being much higher or of some regional extremes reaching dangerous levels for ecosystems and societies over the coming decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Sonia I. Seneviratne & Joeri Rogelj & Roland Séférian & Richard Wartenburger & Myles R. Allen & Michelle Cain & Richard J. Millar & Kristie L. Ebi & Neville Ellis & Ove Hoegh-Guldberg & Antony J. Payn, 2018. "The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 558(7708), pages 41-49, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:558:y:2018:i:7708:d:10.1038_s41586-018-0181-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0181-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Luis U. Castruita-Esparza & Raúl Narváez-Flores & Mélida Gutiérrez & Aldo S. Mojica-Guerrero & Gerónimo Quiñones-Barraza & Javier Hernández-Salas, 2024. "Structure and Carbon Capture of a Temperate Mixed Forest across Altitudinal Gradients in Northern Mexico," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-17, April.
    2. Luyun Jiang & Seong OK Han & Melissa Pirie & Hyun Hee Kim & Young-Hoon Seong & Hyunuk Kim & John S Foord, 2021. "Seaweed biomass waste-derived carbon as an electrode material for supercapacitor," Energy & Environment, , vol. 32(6), pages 1117-1129, September.
    3. Rickels, Wilfried & Merk, Christine & Honneth, Johannes & Schwinger, Jörg & Quaas, Martin & Oschlies, Andreas, 2019. "Welche Rolle spielen negative Emissionen für die zukünftige Klimapolitik?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 261840, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Zheng Li & Ruoyao Tang & Hanbin Qiu & Linwei Ma, 2023. "Smart Energy Urban Agglomerations in China: The Driving Mechanism, Basic Concepts, and Indicator Evaluation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-23, August.

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