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Demographic compensation and tipping points in climate-induced range shifts

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel F. Doak

    (University of Wyoming)

  • William F. Morris

    (Duke University, Box 90338, Durham, North Carolina 27708, USA)

Abstract

Chasing the climate Climate change is expected to shift the geographical ranges of many animal and plant species, in terms of both the latitude and altitude of their habitat. Many reported range shifts have been idiosyncratic, however, even among taxonomically similar species, with the low latitude or low altitude limit of a species' range not necessarily moving as fast as the high edge. Using demographic data on the tundra plants moss campion and alpine bistort, Daniel Doak and William Morris show that changed demographic rates at the lower edge are compensating for the warming climate, but that this effect will not last and a tipping point may be reached as temperatures get warmer.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel F. Doak & William F. Morris, 2010. "Demographic compensation and tipping points in climate-induced range shifts," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7318), pages 959-962, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:467:y:2010:i:7318:d:10.1038_nature09439
    DOI: 10.1038/nature09439
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    Cited by:

    1. Davison, Raziel & Stadman, Marc & Jongejans, Eelke, 2019. "Stochastic effects contribute to population fitness differences," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 408(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Bing Wang & Su-Yan Pan & Ruo-Yu Ke & Ke Wang & Yi-Ming Wei, 2014. "An overview of climate change vulnerability: a bibliometric analysis based on Web of Science database," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 1649-1666, December.
    3. Liu, Junguo & Kattel, Giri & Arp, Hans Peter H. & Yang, Hong, 2015. "Towards threshold-based management of freshwater ecosystems in the context of climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 318(C), pages 265-274.
    4. F. Lloret & J. Martinez-Vilalta & J. Serra-Diaz & M. Ninyerola, 2013. "Relationship between projected changes in future climatic suitability and demographic and functional traits of forest tree species in Spain," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 449-462, September.
    5. Sinnott, Emily A. & Thompson, Frank R. & Weegman, Mitch D. & Thompson, Thomas R. & Mosloff, Alisha R. & Hedges, R. Kyle & Loncarich, Frank L., 2023. "Evaluation of seasonal site-level demography and management for northern bobwhite using integrated population models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 475(C).
    6. Michael J. Noonan & Chris Newman & Andrew Markham & Kirstin Bilham & Christina D. Buesching & David W. Macdonald, 2018. "In situ behavioral plasticity as compensation for weather variability: implications for future climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 457-471, August.
    7. Koo, Kyung Ah & Patten, Bernard C. & Teskey, Robert O. & Creed, Irena F., 2014. "Climate change effects on red spruce decline mitigated by reduction in air pollution within its shrinking habitat range," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 293(C), pages 81-90.
    8. Ralf C Buckley & J Guy Castley & Fernanda de Vasconcellos Pegas & Alexa C Mossaz & Rochelle Steven, 2012. "A Population Accounting Approach to Assess Tourism Contributions to Conservation of IUCN-Redlisted Mammal Species," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(9), pages 1-8, September.

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