IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/nature/v467y2010i7314d10.1038_467411a.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Foreseeing tipping points

Author

Listed:
  • Marten Scheffer

    (Marten Scheffer is in the Environmental Sciences Group, Wageningen University, 6700 Wageningen, the Netherlands. marten.scheffer@wur.nl)

Abstract

Theory suggests that the risk of critical transitions in complex systems can be revealed by generic indicators. A lab study of extinction in plankton populations provides experimental support for that principle. See Letter p. 456

Suggested Citation

  • Marten Scheffer, 2010. "Foreseeing tipping points," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7314), pages 411-412, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:467:y:2010:i:7314:d:10.1038_467411a
    DOI: 10.1038/467411a
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/467411a
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/467411a?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pascal Peduzzi, 2019. "The Disaster Risk, Global Change, and Sustainability Nexus," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-21, February.
    2. Yuhe Ji & Guangsheng Zhou & Qijin He & Lixia Wang, 2018. "The Effect of Climate Change on Spring Maize ( Zea mays L.) Suitability across China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-10, October.
    3. Joung-Hun Lee & Marko Jusup & Boris Podobnik & Yoh Iwasa, 2015. "Agent-Based Mapping of Credit Risk for Sustainable Microfinance," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(5), pages 1-16, May.
    4. Julie Ricard, 2022. "Accroissement de la complexité des décisions dans un contexte de prolifération des règles," Post-Print hal-03633895, HAL.
    5. Chris Desmond & Janet Seeley & Candice Groenewald & Nothando Ngwenya & Kate Rich & Tony Barnett, 2019. "Interpreting social determinants: Emergent properties and adolescent risk behaviour," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(12), pages 1-17, December.
    6. Gianluca Fabiani & Nikolaos Evangelou & Tianqi Cui & Juan M. Bello-Rivas & Cristina P. Martin-Linares & Constantinos Siettos & Ioannis G. Kevrekidis, 2024. "Task-oriented machine learning surrogates for tipping points of agent-based models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Joël Berger, 2021. "Social Tipping Interventions Can Promote the Diffusion or Decay of Sustainable Consumption Norms in the Field. Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Intervention Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-13, March.
    8. Gianluca Fabiani & Nikolaos Evangelou & Tianqi Cui & Juan M. Bello-Rivas & Cristina P. Martin-Linares & Constantinos Siettos & Ioannis G. Kevrekidis, 2023. "Tasks Makyth Models: Machine Learning Assisted Surrogates for Tipping Points," Papers 2309.14334, arXiv.org.
    9. Tatiana Baumuratova & Simona Dobre & Thierry Bastogne & Thomas Sauter, 2013. "Switch of Sensitivity Dynamics Revealed with DyGloSA Toolbox for Dynamical Global Sensitivity Analysis as an Early Warning for System's Critical Transition," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(12), pages 1-12, December.
    10. Zvonko Kostanjcar & Stjepan Begusic & H. E. Stanley & Boris Podobnik, 2015. "Estimating Tipping Points in Feedback-Driven Financial Networks," Papers 1509.04952, arXiv.org.
    11. Fabio Silva & Fiona Coward & Kimberley Davies & Sarah Elliott & Emma Jenkins & Adrian C. Newton & Philip Riris & Marc Vander Linden & Jennifer Bates & Elena Cantarello & Daniel A. Contreras & Stefani , 2022. "Developing Transdisciplinary Approaches to Sustainability Challenges: The Need to Model Socio-Environmental Systems in the Longue Durée," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-20, August.
    12. Jinxiao Duan & Guanwen Zeng & Nimrod Serok & Daqing Li & Efrat Blumenfeld Lieberthal & Hai-Jun Huang & Shlomo Havlin, 2023. "Spatiotemporal dynamics of traffic bottlenecks yields an early signal of heavy congestions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    13. Moghadam, Nastaran Navid & Ramamoorthy, Ramesh & Nazarimehr, Fahimeh & Rajagopal, Karthikeyan & Jafari, Sajad, 2022. "Tipping points of a complex network biomass model: Local and global parameter variations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 592(C).
    14. Winnink, J.J. & Tijssen, Robert J.W. & van Raan, A.F.J., 2019. "Searching for new breakthroughs in science: How effective are computerised detection algorithms?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 673-686.
    15. Didier Wernli & Lucas Böttcher & Flore Vanackere & Yuliya Kaspiarovich & Maria Masood & Nicolas Levrat, 2023. "Understanding and governing global systemic crises in the 21st century: A complexity perspective," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 14(2), pages 207-228, May.
    16. Tjörnbo, Ola & McGowan, Katharine, 2022. "A complex-systems perspective on the role of universities in social innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    17. David C. Lane & Birgit Kopainsky & Hubert Korzilius, 2017. "Researching Resilience: Some Methodological Issues," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 463-468, July.
    18. Baeza, Andres, 2018. "Modelling the critical transition from Chilean evergreen forest to savanna: Early warning signals and livestock management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 388(C), pages 115-123.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:467:y:2010:i:7314:d:10.1038_467411a. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.