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Foreseeing tipping points

Author

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  • Marten Scheffer

    (Marten Scheffer is in the Environmental Sciences Group, Wageningen University, 6700 Wageningen, the Netherlands. marten.scheffer@wur.nl)

Abstract

Theory suggests that the risk of critical transitions in complex systems can be revealed by generic indicators. A lab study of extinction in plankton populations provides experimental support for that principle. See Letter p. 456

Suggested Citation

  • Marten Scheffer, 2010. "Foreseeing tipping points," Nature, Nature, vol. 467(7314), pages 411-412, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:467:y:2010:i:7314:d:10.1038_467411a
    DOI: 10.1038/467411a
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    Cited by:

    1. Pascal Peduzzi, 2019. "The Disaster Risk, Global Change, and Sustainability Nexus," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-21, February.
    2. Joung-Hun Lee & Marko Jusup & Boris Podobnik & Yoh Iwasa, 2015. "Agent-Based Mapping of Credit Risk for Sustainable Microfinance," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(5), pages 1-16, May.
    3. Chris Desmond & Janet Seeley & Candice Groenewald & Nothando Ngwenya & Kate Rich & Tony Barnett, 2019. "Interpreting social determinants: Emergent properties and adolescent risk behaviour," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(12), pages 1-17, December.
    4. Gianluca Fabiani & Nikolaos Evangelou & Tianqi Cui & Juan M. Bello-Rivas & Cristina P. Martin-Linares & Constantinos Siettos & Ioannis G. Kevrekidis, 2024. "Task-oriented machine learning surrogates for tipping points of agent-based models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    5. Joël Berger, 2021. "Social Tipping Interventions Can Promote the Diffusion or Decay of Sustainable Consumption Norms in the Field. Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Intervention Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-13, March.
    6. Fabio Silva & Fiona Coward & Kimberley Davies & Sarah Elliott & Emma Jenkins & Adrian C. Newton & Philip Riris & Marc Vander Linden & Jennifer Bates & Elena Cantarello & Daniel A. Contreras & Stefani , 2022. "Developing Transdisciplinary Approaches to Sustainability Challenges: The Need to Model Socio-Environmental Systems in the Longue Durée," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-20, August.
    7. Jinxiao Duan & Guanwen Zeng & Nimrod Serok & Daqing Li & Efrat Blumenfeld Lieberthal & Hai-Jun Huang & Shlomo Havlin, 2023. "Spatiotemporal dynamics of traffic bottlenecks yields an early signal of heavy congestions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Didier Wernli & Lucas Böttcher & Flore Vanackere & Yuliya Kaspiarovich & Maria Masood & Nicolas Levrat, 2023. "Understanding and governing global systemic crises in the 21st century: A complexity perspective," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 14(2), pages 207-228, May.
    9. David C. Lane & Birgit Kopainsky & Hubert Korzilius, 2017. "Researching Resilience: Some Methodological Issues," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 463-468, July.
    10. Baeza, Andres, 2018. "Modelling the critical transition from Chilean evergreen forest to savanna: Early warning signals and livestock management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 388(C), pages 115-123.
    11. Yuhe Ji & Guangsheng Zhou & Qijin He & Lixia Wang, 2018. "The Effect of Climate Change on Spring Maize ( Zea mays L.) Suitability across China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-10, October.
    12. Julie Ricard, 2022. "Accroissement de la complexité des décisions dans un contexte de prolifération des règles," Post-Print hal-03633895, HAL.
    13. Gianluca Fabiani & Nikolaos Evangelou & Tianqi Cui & Juan M. Bello-Rivas & Cristina P. Martin-Linares & Constantinos Siettos & Ioannis G. Kevrekidis, 2023. "Tasks Makyth Models: Machine Learning Assisted Surrogates for Tipping Points," Papers 2309.14334, arXiv.org.
    14. Tatiana Baumuratova & Simona Dobre & Thierry Bastogne & Thomas Sauter, 2013. "Switch of Sensitivity Dynamics Revealed with DyGloSA Toolbox for Dynamical Global Sensitivity Analysis as an Early Warning for System's Critical Transition," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(12), pages 1-12, December.
    15. Zvonko Kostanjcar & Stjepan Begusic & H. E. Stanley & Boris Podobnik, 2015. "Estimating Tipping Points in Feedback-Driven Financial Networks," Papers 1509.04952, arXiv.org.
    16. Moghadam, Nastaran Navid & Ramamoorthy, Ramesh & Nazarimehr, Fahimeh & Rajagopal, Karthikeyan & Jafari, Sajad, 2022. "Tipping points of a complex network biomass model: Local and global parameter variations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 592(C).
    17. Winnink, J.J. & Tijssen, Robert J.W. & van Raan, A.F.J., 2019. "Searching for new breakthroughs in science: How effective are computerised detection algorithms?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 673-686.
    18. Tjörnbo, Ola & McGowan, Katharine, 2022. "A complex-systems perspective on the role of universities in social innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).

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